Smartphones to Be Abandoned in 2026, Mass Shift to Foldables Predicted

The global smartphone industry is expected to face pressure throughout 2026. A lingering memory chip shortage is predicted to drive up component prices, leading to higher retail costs for devices like mobile phones and computers. At the same time, a global economic situation that has not fully recovered is making consumers more selective, prompting them to delay upgrading their smartphones.

Research firm IDC projects that the global smartphone market could shrink by up to 5% in 2026 under a pessimistic scenario. This decline is attributed to rising average selling prices and increasingly longer replacement cycles. A report from IDC on 9 December 2025 specifically notes that shipments of conventional, non-foldable phones will fall.

In contrast, the foldable phone category is expected to experience significant growth, with shipments predicted to surge by 29.7% in 2026. “2026 will be an exciting year for the foldable phone category with annual growth projected at almost 30%, compared to the previous forecast of 6%,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.

Popal added that Samsung will kick off 2026 with the Galaxy Z TriFold, introducing a tri-fold phone to the global mainstream market and building on the momentum of the Galaxy Z Fold7’s success in 2025. Huawei’s foldable phones running HarmonyOS Next are also expected to show strong growth, with shipments predicted to nearly double in 2026. However, the real game-changer for the segment is expected to arrive late in the year when Apple enters the foldable market.

Francisco Jeronimo, VP for client devices at IDC, stated that Apple’s first foldable phone will mark a new chapter for the segment. “Apple’s move will drive interest in the foldable category. Apple tends to act as a catalyst for mainstream adoption of new product categories. Although foldables will remain a niche segment in terms of volume, they will be a relevant value driver for most vendors offering them, as their average selling price will be three times higher than a standard phone,” he said.

With consumer behaviour in 2026 trending towards longer device usage, making replacement cycles harder to trigger, foldable phones are becoming increasingly important for an industry facing saturation. The foldable phone category is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% through 2029, compared to less than 1% for the conventional handset segment.

IDC’s report further indicates that in 2026, Android will dominate the foldable phone market with a 61% share. Apple is expected to capture a 22% share, while HarmonyOS Next will account for 17%. The report notes that these projections remain subject to change depending on market dynamics.