Smartphones to Be Abandoned by 2026 as Users Flock to Replacements

A shortage of memory chips is impacting the consumer electronics industry, including computers, mobile phones, and home appliances. Analysts predict that component prices will rise significantly, causing retail prices to increase by up to 20%. Amidst an uncertain global economy, this price hike without a corresponding increase in quality could dampen consumer purchasing interest. IDC previously projected a risk of a global smartphone market decline in 2026, potentially reaching 5% in a pessimistic scenario, alongside higher average selling prices and longer replacement cycles. More specifically, a report from 9 December 2025 indicated that shipments of conventional, non-foldable phones are expected to fall by 1.4% in 2026. In contrast, the more innovative foldable phone segment is forecast to grow significantly by 29.7% in 2026. This growth is driven by the much-anticipated debut of Apple’s first foldable iPhone and the introduction of Samsung’s Galaxy Z TriFold, marking further innovation with a tri-fold design. Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, stated that 2026 will be an exciting year for the foldable phone category, with annual growth projected at nearly 30%, up from a previous benchmark of 6%. She noted that Samsung will kick off the year with the Galaxy Z TriFold, bringing tri-fold phones to the mainstream global market and building on the success of the Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025. Huawei’s foldable phones running HarmonyOS Next are also expected to show strong growth, with shipments predicted to nearly double in 2026. However, Popal added that the real game-changer will come later in the year when Apple enters the sector. Francisco Jeronimo, IDC’s vice president for client devices, said Apple’s first foldable phone will mark a new chapter for the segment, acting as a catalyst for mainstream adoption. Although foldable phones will remain a niche segment in terms of volume, their average selling price is expected to be three times higher than standard phones, making them a relevant value driver for vendors. As consumers in 2026 tend to use their phones for longer, making replacement cycles harder to trigger, foldable phones are becoming vital for an industry that has reached saturation and needs meaningful innovation to motivate upgrades and drive value. The foldable phone category is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17% through 2029, compared to less than 1% for the conventional handset segment. IDC also reported that in 2026, Android is expected to dominate the foldable phone market with a 61% share, followed by Apple with 22% and HarmonyOS Next with 17%. These projections remain subject to change based on market dynamics.