Smartphones Begin to Be Abandoned in 2026, Replacements Eagerly Embraced

Smartphones, which have been society’s primary device for over a decade, are beginning to face new challenges in 2026. Conventional smartphones are expected to start losing their appeal that year. Market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) projects the global smartphone market could potentially decline, amid increasingly longer device replacement cycles and rising average selling prices. Component prices are predicted to rise significantly, causing retail prices to also jump by up to 20%, according to analysts cited by the Financial Times. Amid an uncertain global economic climate, an increase in electronic device prices not accompanied by quality improvements could lead to a decline in purchasing interest. In its recent projection, IDC sees a risk of a global smartphone market decline in 2026, reaching 5% in a pessimistic scenario, alongside an increase in average selling prices and longer replacement cycles. More specifically, an IDC report on 9 December 2025 stated that conventional non-foldable smartphones will experience a 1.4% decline in shipments in 2026. At the same time, more innovative foldable phones are predicted to grow significantly, reaching 29.7% in 2026, according to IDC’s official website. This growth is driven by the emergence of the long-awaited first foldable iPhone, as well as the arrival of the Samsung Galaxy Z TriFold, which marks further innovation in the form of a tri-fold phone. ‘2026 will be an exciting year for the foldable phone category, with annual growth projected at nearly 30%, compared to the previous projection benchmark of 6%,’ said Nabila Popal, IDC senior research director. ‘Samsung will kick off 2026 with the Galaxy Z TriFold, introducing tri-fold phones to the mainstream global market and building momentum from the success of the Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025. Huawei’s foldable phones with the HarmonyOS Next operating system will also show strong growth, with shipments predicted to nearly double in 2026. However, the game-changer for the foldable phone category will come at the end of 2026 when Apple enters this sector,’ she added. IDC Vice President for Client Devices, Francisco Jeronimo, said Apple’s first foldable phone will mark a new chapter in the foldable phone segment. ‘Apple’s move will drive interest in the foldable phone category. Apple tends to act as a catalyst for the adoption of new product categories in the mainstream market. Although foldable phones will remain a niche segment from a volume perspective, they will become a relevant value driver for most vendors offering them, as their average selling price will be three times higher than standard phones,’ he stated. Consumer behaviour in 2026, which tends towards using phones for longer periods, is making the replacement cycle increasingly difficult for phone manufacturers. Thus, foldable phones are becoming very important for an industry that has reached a saturation point and needs meaningful innovation to motivate upgrades and drive value. The foldable phone category is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% through 2029, compared to less than 1% for the conventional phone segment. Furthermore, IDC reported that in 2026, the operating system that will dominate the foldable phone market is Android, with a 61% share. Apple will subsequently take a 22% share, and HarmonyOS Next 17%. It should be noted that these projections may change at any time, depending on market dynamics.