Skyrocketing Non-Subsidised Diesel Prices: Here Are the Domino Effects

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Bhima Yudhistira, assesses that the increase in non-subsidised fuel oil (BBM) and LPG prices will trigger a domino effect, from inflationary pressures to a slowdown in economic growth.

According to Bhima, the surge in non-subsidised energy prices will directly transmit to inflation, both in the energy sector and food. For example, the rise in BBM prices such as Pertamax Turbo could shift consumer consumption to cheaper BBM types like Pertamax.

“But on the other hand, what is somewhat concerning is the 60% increase in Pertamina Dex, even though Pertamina Dex is also used for industrial machinery, heavy equipment, and many logistics trucks use Pertamina Dex,” Bhima told CNBC Indonesia on Monday (20/4/2026).

Bhima believes the increase in Pertamina Dex BBM will drive up logistics costs, which will ultimately be passed on to the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. As a result, inflationary pressure will not only come from energy but also spread to the food sector and daily consumption.

“Now, one thing the government must pay attention to is providing compensation to industries and logistics business players; otherwise, prices at the retail level or for consumer products—goods or services—will be higher,” Bhima said.

From the consumption side, the middle class is expected to start holding back on spending and focus more on basic needs. The tourism sector is also deemed potentially affected due to rising transportation and consumption costs, such as vehicle rentals as well as food and beverage prices.

“Tourism will also be impacted; the tourism sector will slow down more because of car rental costs. Food and drink costs will also rise, and economic growth could be below 5%, with a projection of 4.7% in 2026,” he said.

Corporate Secretary of PT Pertamina Patra Niaga, Roberth MV Dumatubun, explained that the adjustment of non-subsidised BBM prices is influenced by global market price dynamics and geopolitical conditions. The same applies to the increase in non-subsidised LPG prices.

“The adjustment of LPG NPSO (Non-Subsidised) prices is more or less the same as BBM NPSO, influenced by market prices and current geopolitical conditions,” Roberth told CNBC Indonesia on Monday (20/4/2026).