SKK Migas projects ICP to reach 80 USD per barrel by 2027
The Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas), Djoko Siswanto, projects that the average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in 2027 will be at the level of 80 USD per barrel.
“For 2027, our estimate for the ICP is 80 USD per barrel,” stated Djoko Sisundanto during a Hearing (RDP) with Commission XII of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI) at the Parliament Complex in Senayan, Jakarta, on Wednesday.
This figure is 10 USD per barrel higher than the ICP stipulated in the 2026 State Budget (APBN) macro assumptions, which is set at 70 USD per barrel. Due to the conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran, the average ICP from January 2026 to May 2026 reached 86 USD per barrel.
Despite these fluctuations, Djoko noted that the prices of subsidised fuels, such as Pertalite and Biosolar, will not increase until the end of 2026, as the average ICP has not reached 100 USD per barrel. “Regarding the ICP, the realisation from 2026 up to May was 86 USD per barrel. This is why the prices of subsidised Pertalite and diesel remain unchanged until the end of the year, because the target is that funds are sufficient as long as the ICP does not reach 100,” said Djoksis, the nickname for Djoko Siswanto.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) set the average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for April 2026 at 117.31 USD per barrel. This price surged by 15.05 USD compared to March 2026, which was recorded at 102.26 USD per barrel.
According to the Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of ESDM, Laode Sulaeman, various developments throughout April 2026 exerted pressure on the global oil market, ranging from volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of Iranian ports by the United States to attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East. These conditions have heightened market concerns regarding the stability of the global energy supply. In addition to geopolitical factors, China’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, which reached 5 per cent year-on-year, also provided positive sentiment for global oil demand.