Six Pressing Concerns Haunt Indonesia This Week: MSCI and Stimulus in Focus

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain volatile today, Monday (22/6/2026), and throughout the coming week. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to close last Friday’s trading in positive territory despite fluctuating throughout the day. The index movement occurred amid market participants’ response to the results of the MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review 2026.

Based on Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) data, the IHSG closed slightly higher by 0.08%, or an increase of 4.8 points, to a level of 6,177.14. During trading, the IHSG touched a high of 6,215.06 and a low of 6,117.31. Interestingly, the IHSG only turned positive near the end of trading. The index had strengthened up to 0.69% before paring gains to end almost unchanged from the previous trading position.

Transaction value was recorded at Rp25.89 trillion, with a trading volume of 30.23 billion shares across 1.7 million transactions. A total of 353 stocks rose, 358 stocks fell, and 248 stocks were stagnant. Despite closing in the green, the IHSG’s gain was supported by certain large-capitalisation stocks. Shares of PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) were the largest index supporter, contributing 23.84 points. PT Mora Telematika Indonesia Tbk (MORA) contributed 21.07 points and PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) contributed 14.05 points. Other stocks supporting the IHSG included PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), PT Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk (SRAJ), PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (MDKA), and PT Maha Properti Indonesia Tbk (MPRO).

On the downside, the greatest pressure on the IHSG came from shares of PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM), which reduced the index by 18.79 points. Pressure also came from PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI), PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (AMMN), PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT), and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI).

Sectorally, energy stocks were the market’s engine with a 4.90% gain, followed by the healthcare sector which surged 3.99% and technology which rose 2.12%. Conversely, the raw materials sector was the largest drag with a 2.04% decline, followed by utilities down 1.23%, industrials down 1.10%, and financials down 0.54%.

The IHSG’s slight gain did not extend to the rupiah. The rupiah exchange rate ended the last trading day of the week weaker against the US dollar on Friday. The weakening occurred amid a strengthening US dollar in global markets. This position reversed the situation from the previous trading day. On Thursday (18/6/2026), the rupiah managed to close stronger by 0.17% at Rp17,700/US$ after Bank Indonesia (BI) again raised its benchmark interest rate.

Throughout Friday’s trading, the rupiah was already in the red zone from the opening. The Garuda currency opened down 0.73% at Rp17,830/US.PressureevendeepenedwhentherupiahtoucheditsweakestlevelofthedayatRp17, 850/US. However, this pressure eased slightly towards the end of trading, with the rupiah closing at Rp17,775/US$. Pressure on the rupiah was still influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar in global markets. The rising US dollar index indicates that market participants are still chasing US dollar-denominated assets. This condition ultimately limits the room for appreciation of other currencies, including the rupiah.

The US dollar moved strongly after market participants continued to digest the results of the US central bank’s meeting, The Federal Reserve, on Wednesday local time. The meeting was the first Fed meeting under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. Warsh’s relatively brief comments, coupled with the Fed’s latest projections on the direction of interest rates, reinforced expectations that US interest rates could still rise this year. These expectations helped push the US dollar to its highest level in more than a year.

Domestically, BI just held its Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on Thursday (18/6/2026). At the meeting, BI again raised the BI Rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%. This increase is a further step by BI to strengthen the stabilisation of the rupiah exchange rate. In addition, the policy is also a pre-emptive measure to keep inflation in 2026 and 2027 within the government’s target range of 2.5±1%.

Besides raising interest rates, BI also further tightened rules on foreign exchange purchases against the rupiah. BI reduced the limit for cash purchases of foreign exchange against the rupiah without an underlying transaction to US$10,000 per entity per month. This policy will take effect on 1 July 2026. “We are doing this to enforce the existing regulatory governance. Purchases of dollars, especially above US$10,000, must have an underlying,” said BI Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti at a press conference on Thursday (18/6/2026). Previously, BI had lowered the threshold for dollar purchases without an underlying to US$25,000 per person per month. Now, the limit has been lowered again as part of efforts to strengthen the Money Market and Foreign Exchange Market deepening policy to make it more advanced, efficient, and prudent. This step is also aimed at maintaining the attractiveness of foreign investment and increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy, including in stabilising the rupiah exchange rate.

In the bond market, the yield on the government’s 10-year Government Securities (SBN) surged 1.46% to a level of 7.070% in last Friday’s trading. As a note, a rise in yield indicates that SBN prices are falling. This condition typically reflects selling pressure in the bond market, as yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.

Global stock markets moved lower in trading on Friday (19/6/2026), with the majority of European and Asia-Pacific exchanges closing in the red. Market participants are still observing the sustainability of the peace agreement between the United States (US) and Iran mediated by Washington. Meanwhile, US stock and bond markets were closed on Friday.