Singapore Refinery Business to Become Growth Engine for Barito Pacific (BRPT) This Year

The outlook for PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) remains bright through the end of 2026. The contribution from integrated businesses in Singapore and increased refinery capacity are expected to support the conglomerate’s performance growth.

The company owned by Prajogo Pangestu recorded a surge in performance in the first quarter of 2026. Management attributed the jump to strong contributions from oil refinery operations in Singapore. Currently, BRPT is also integrating downstream businesses through the acquisition of fuel retail assets owned by ExxonMobil.

As is known, BRPT’s subsidiary, PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA), operates the Aster Oil Refinery (formerly Shell Energy & Chemicals Park), which was acquired in April 2025.

Senior Equity Research analyst at Kiwoom Sekuritas, Sukarno Alatas, stated that BRPT’s prospects until the end of 2026 remain positive, driven by the full contribution of energy and refinery assets in Singapore through Aster Chemicals & Energy.

“The acquisition of the Bukom refinery and Esso petrol station network strengthens revenue diversification beyond the petrochemical business, while the increase in refinery capacity in the second half of 2026 has the potential to support volume and margin growth,” Sukarno told Kontan on Friday (12/6/2026).

UBS Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Timothy Handerson assessed that Aster is in an excellent position to capitalise on high refining margins. This is supported by a refinery capacity of 237,000 barrels per day (kb/d) and a large production share of diesel and jet fuel.

Furthermore, refinery capacity is expected to increase to 300,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2026 as a condensate splitter unit comes online, providing additional growth potential.

“We have raised our 2026 oil refining margin assumption to US$17 per barrel from the previous US$15 per barrel to reflect current market conditions,” Timothy stated in research published on 9 June 2026.

Based on this analysis, it is estimated that every US$1 per barrel increase in refining margins could boost BRPT’s EBITDA by US$87 million to US$110 million, assuming other factors remain constant.

This capacity growth will be supported by the Suoh Sekincau and Hamiding geothermal projects, as well as additional wind power plant development. The Suoh Sekincau geothermal project is a large-scale project with a potential capacity of 495 MW to 875 MW.

Nevertheless, Sukarno noted several risks. These include pressure on petrochemical margins due to global oversupply conditions, oil price volatility that could affect refining margins, and potential supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions.

Additionally, high funding costs amid a relatively elevated global interest rate environment could pose a challenge to the company’s performance.

According to the company’s financial report, BRPT’s revenue soared 232.18% year-on-year (yoy) to US$2.57 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared to US$773.75 million in the same period of 2025.

BRPT also recorded a net profit attributable to owners of the parent entity of US$90.48 million in Q1 2026, a 459.90% yoy increase from US$16.16 million in the previous corresponding period.

For the full year 2026, Andreas projects BRPT will book revenue of US$11.12 billion, or 45.7% growth compared to the 2025 realisation of US$7.63 billion. However, net profit is estimated to decline 38.2% to US$303 million from US$490 million in the prior year.

Consequently, Sukarno recommends a Buy or Accumulate on Weakness rating for BRPT shares, with a 12-month target price in the range of Rp 2,200 to Rp 2,400 per share.

Meanwhile, Andreas and Timothy both recommend buying BRPT shares, with target prices of Rp 4,200 and Rp 2,700 per share, respectively.