Singapore exports dismal, dark clouds to disappear soon
Singapore exports dismal, dark clouds to disappear soon
Mantik Kusjanto, Reuters, Singapore
Singapore suffered yet another slide in non-oil exports in November but the lower than expected fall pointed to better times ahead for the recession-hit economy.
The trade-driven city state, reeling from the global economic slowdown and waning electronics demand even before the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, is on course for a three percent contraction this year after blazing 9.9 percent growth in 2000.
Analysts said official data on Tuesday showing a nominal 21.1 percent drop in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) versus November 2000 to S$7.99 billion (US$4.35 billion) signaled that the dark clouds may be starting to clear.
"The worst is probably past and (NODX) should continue to improve in December, especially coming off a lower base last year," said Charlie Lay, an analyst at Forecast in Singapore.
Five economists polled by Reuters had forecast a fall of 24.7 percent in November on average, with the range between minus 18 percent and minus 28 percent.
"It's better than we had expected. We were looking for a 23.2 percent dip," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at G.K. Goh. "I suppose it's a confirmation that we are indeed bottoming out as far as Singapore's key manufacturing sector is concerned."
Exports fell by a record 30.7 percent in September, and then by 21.6 percent in October.
Electronics exports -- a major driver of Singapore's economy representing about two-thirds of NODX, half of manufacturing and 12-13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) -- fell 24 percent to S$4.99 billion in November. Oil exports were down 22.5 percent.
The Trade Development Board (TDB) said total trade fell 19.5 percent to S$34.63 billion, with imports down 21.3 percent to S$16.57 billion. In real terms, NODX fell 18 percent from November 2000 to S$9.6 billion.
"The global electronic demand remained in its persistent slump while the major economies continued to slow," the TDB said in a statement. "With the exception of Hong Kong, NODX to all of the top 10 markets remained in negative territory in November."
Exports to the United States, the city state's second-largest trading partner after neighboring Malaysia and a key market for its electronics goods, fell a nominal 29.9 percent after a 28.7 percent drop in October and a 46 percent plunge in September.
Those to the European Union contracted 27.4 percent versus November 2000.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry has stuck to its GDP forecast in the range of two percent growth to a two percent contraction next year. Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has predicted a flat 2002 and two to four percent growth in 2003.
Singapore -- battling its worst recession since 1964 -- is working to overhaul its economy to lessen reliance on electronics by building on the existing pharmaceuticals sector and broadening into areas like biotechnology and health sciences.