Similarity in Survey Findings Raises Questions Regarding Independence
Political and legal observer Muslim Arbi has levelled sharp criticism at the practice of political surveying in Indonesia. According to him, the similarity in survey results from various institutions has raised questions within the community regarding the independence of the data collection process.
Muslim Arbi stated that one common suspicion is the use of the same network of survey managers or enumerators by several different survey agencies. This condition, he noted, has the potential to cause survey results to follow similar patterns. “Many people are asking why political survey results from various agencies often appear similar? One suspicion frequently discussed is that some survey agencies use the same network of survey managers or enumerators to collect data in the field,” he said on Friday.
He assessed that the primary issue does not lie solely with the survey agencies themselves, but rather with the alleged existence of third parties managing enumerator networks across various regions. According to Muslim, if there is a dependency on the same network, the independence of the data collection process can be questioned. Consequently, the survey results published by various agencies may show almost identical trends.
“The alleged manipulation does not occur within the survey agencies, but rather within the parties managing the surveyor networks. They are suspected of having the ability to manipulate the data collection process so that the resulting figures appear as if they come from correct sampling, even though the quality of implementation is questionable,” he said.
He argued that if these allegations are true, the issue is no longer merely about research methodology, but touches upon the ethics of democracy. He believes that surveys, which should function as scientific instruments to capture public preferences, could transform into tools for shaping public opinion if the process is not conducted independently. “Surveys that should be tools to measure public opinion could instead become tools to steer public perception. Survey figures would no longer merely reflect reality, but could potentially influence the political choices of the public.”
In political science, survey results do not only serve as a measurement tool but can also influence voter behaviour. This phenomenon is known as the ‘bandwagon effect’, where voters tend to support candidates perceived to be leading based on survey results. Conversely, there is also the ‘underdog effect’, where sympathy arises for candidates perceived to be lagging. Both phenomena demonstrate that the publication of survey results can have a psychological impact on political dynamics, though the magnitude of influence varies depending on context, political literacy, and the credibility of the survey agency.
Therefore, methodological quality is the primary factor in determining whether survey results are worthy of public reference. Muslim emphasised that transparency is a fundamental requirement for survey agencies to maintain public trust. He urged every survey agency to disclose in detail the research methodology used, including sampling techniques, number of respondents, survey timing, margin of error, confidence levels, and the oversight mechanism for enumerators in the field.
Furthermore, Muslim noted the importance of explaining the data validation process to ensure that interviews are truly conducted according to procedure and are not merely based on administrative reports. He believes that the more transparent a survey agency is regarding its methodology and internal audit processes, the easier it will be for the public to assess the quality of the published survey results.