Should ASEAN accept Myanmar this year?

The question of whether ASEAN will welcome Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia as full members this year is the air. J. Soedjati Djiwandono of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies takes a look at the issue.

JAKARTA (JP): It is almost certain that Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar will be admitted simultaneously into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on the occasion of its 30th anniversary. This is to be marked in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in July this year. Yet Myanmar's entry into ASEAN in the current political climate is likely to continue to be an issue of debate in various ASEAN forums, particularly at the track-two (informal) level.

Nevertheless, it is almost unthinkable for ASEAN to reverse the decision. Too much prestige is at stake. ASEAN heads of state and governments have made the commitment to admit the three countries into the association jointly, without specifying the date. The stakes will be double for Malaysia, which is to host the occasion. To not do so would create the impression of kowtowing to Western pressure. This would be something ASEAN member states cannot afford.

However Myanmar has been isolated or has isolated itself for decades, as though proving to the world that it was the only truly nonaligned nation.

When asked to join ASEAN before its establishment in 1967, Burma turned down the offer on the grounds that it would be contrary to its nonaligned foreign policy. Now, however, there may be a risk that if it fails to join ASEAN this year for reasons not of its own making, Myanmar may never wish to join, again for considerations of prestige.

If that should be the case, the dream of a united southeast Asia would be shattered. Though not as yet in the "ASEAN-10" formula, the relevant provision in the Bangkok Declaration of 1967 that the association is open for membership to other countries of the region expresses that aspiration. Moreover, such an aspiration would justify the reference to Southeast Asia in the designation of the association.

Without suggesting that ASEAN should risk that course, there are likely to be certain prices for ASEAN in admitting Myanmar this year. For one thing, it may be regarded as a boost to the legitimacy of the much-criticized ruling military regime governing in Yangon.

For another, it may somehow adversely affect ASEAN's relations with its dialog partners, particularly the United States, which recently imposed new economic sanctions on Myanmar. In any event, it would be difficult to imagine a discussion between ASEAN and its dialog partners, particularly the United States, where representatives of Myanmar were present and sitting at the same table. It would be an awkward situation. It would be worse should Myanmar take the chair.

In theory, it is not too late to overcome such a dilemmatic scenario and avoid the possibility of such an awkward situation arising. In the interests of all countries concerned, particularly the ASEAN member states and their dialog partners, Myanmar may decide, of its own accord, not to withdraw but to postpone its entry into the association to a future date to be considered and agreed upon later.

Without ASEAN reneging on its commitment, nor Myanmar withdrawing its request for membership to the association, no country would necessarily lose face. And rather than losing face, on the contrary, Myanmar would be able to maintain its prestige and integrity and may even demonstrate its diplomatic wisdom.

The promotion of good governance and the establishment of a civil society marked by democratic pluralism, equality and justice for everyone, and respect for basic human rights, which often relate to domestic stability or instability, are problems that are common to all ASEAN members.

Concern with and attention to such common problems may be translated into a common or at least coordinated policy and form part of a security cooperation agreement, be it on a bilateral or multilateral basis, in addition to an exchange of views, information and experience on such matters. Dialogs on such issues may be initiated at the track-two level.

In that way, an expanded ASEAN would not only ensure greater security and stability for the member states but also for the region. Of no less significance, it would also enhance its credibility and respectability in the international community by demonstrating in good faith its commitment to universal values in the common interest of humankind and by adhering to certain internationally accepted standards and norms of behavior.