Shifting alignments in Umno

Shifting alignments in Umno

By Joceline Tan

KUALA LUMPUR: The venue is somewhere in Malaysia's spanking
new city of Putrajaya, the participants are carefully-picked
middle- and upper-tier leaders from the ruling Umno party, and
the key speaker is none other than Prime Minister and Umno
president Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Dr Mahathir has made time for such sessions with the Umno
grassroots leadership, meeting at least once a month since the
party's elections in May. The sessions, often held over two days,
are supposed to be hush-hush affairs but, because of the frank
and often blunt nature of the meetings, they have become talking
points in Umno political circles.

They talk about the topics discussed -- corruption among
political leaders, Umno's survival, Parti Islam SeMalaysia or
PAS' growing strength (somehow, Parti Keadilan Nasional does not
scare Umno as much as PAS), and threats to Malay sovereignty, to
name a few.

But what seems to fascinate many of them is the key speaker,
Dr Mahathir, or rather, the determination, zeal, even passion,
with which he speaks and fields questions from the floor for up
to eight hours in a day.

A party official who attended one such session a month ago was
astonished by the stamina and discipline of the 75-year-old
Premier. Like many other 30-something and middle-ranking Umno
leaders, this party official has known no other prime minister
but Dr Mahathir throughout his adult life.

The official said: "I don't know how he does it. He went on
from 8.30am to 10am, 11am to 1pm, and 2.30pm to 5pm.

"He knew we were tired because, after lunch, he told us: 'How
nice to be able to take a nap now. But if I were to go to sleep
now, then the rest of the country will also want to do so.'"

Dr Mahathir, more than anyone else, is acutely aware that many
in the party hold him responsible for the erosion of Malay
electoral support from Umno, following the sacking of former
Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. And it probably explains why
he seems to be working harder than the rest to win back public
opinion, especially Malay public opinion.

It has become a sort of mission for him. There is an urgency
in his effort because, as he tells his audience openly, he does
not have much time left, and he wants to mend the damage while he
still can.

This is very likely his last term in office despite his
adversaries in the opposition claiming over loudspeakers at
political gatherings that "the Prime Minister wants to die in
office".

Much of Dr Mahathir's time is now spent on party activity. In
fact, almost every Umno figure is wont to repeat like a mantra
the need for Umno to unite, work hard and to strengthen the
party. But even as Umno leaders are preoccupied with rejuvenating
the party, political alignments and re-alignments have been
quietly in formation since the party elections.

Much of it is centred around Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi,
Dr Mahathir's deputy and his third heir apparent.

Datuk Seri Abdullah was confirmed as the party's No 2 -- he
was appointed Deputy Prime Minister a year and a half earlier --
without a contest.

The party's supreme council had decided against any contest
for the No 1 and No 2 posts on the grounds that it would cause
another unwelcome split in the party.

Datuk Seri Abdullah, who hails from a family of Islamic
scholars, is a typical Malay gentleman -- soft-spoken, courteous
and kind. Underestimated for many years as somewhat soft and from
the old world, he is now beginning to assert himself more
authoritatively.

Of late, there has been a growing perception that he has grown
close to Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, one of the three Umno vice-
presidents (VPs), so much so that there is speculation that when
the time comes for him to pick his own No 2, Tan Sri Muhyiddin
will be his likely choice.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin is also a minister and former Johor Mentri
Besar. Datuk Seri Abdullah is actually much closer to another
minister, Datuk Dr Rais Yatim, an outstanding member of Dr
Mahathir's Cabinet.

Those close to Datuk Seri Abdullah suggest that Datuk Rais
would have been his preferred running mate, except that the Umno
tradition has been to pick the second top post in the party from
among the three VPs (the other two are Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak
and Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib).

Tan Sri Muhyiddin was recently picked to head a committee to
review the party's Constitution. Some think that Datuk Seri
Abdullah helped get him the high-profile assignment.

And, despite baggage from some controversial land deals during
his days as a political warlord in Johor and his close
association with Anwar, Tan Sri Muhyiddin is generally
acknowledged as a workhorse, be it party work or government
duties.

"He's very professional, knows his stuff, and is serious about
what he does -- definitely an asset to the party," said Mohd Alwi
Che Ahmad, an energetic Umno politician from Kelantan.

He is also a good speaker, less prone to rhetorics than the
average politician, and is analytical without being too abstract,
an advantage because the bedrock of Umno's support is still
rural, unsophisticated people.

Nevertheless, it is evident that Tan Sri Muhyiddin does not
exactly enjoy the Prime Minister's full confidence.

"He's still not out of rehabilitation, if you ask me. He is
depending on Pak Lah (Datuk Seri Abdullah) to upgrade him," said
another party member.

Where would a potential Abdullah-Muhyiddin team-up leave the
other two VPs? And would they accept it without a murmur?

Datuk Seri Najib does not have an aggressive political style.
He likes to explore all options before making important decisions
or, as he said in an interview, his politics has always been on
an "incremental and step-by-step approach".

But there is no doubt the party grassroots think he is
eminently qualified. He emerged with the most number of votes
among the three VPs at the May party elections.

Next year will be Datuk Seri Najib's 25th year in active
politics. He was only 23 when he became MP of Pekan, upon the
death of his Prime Minister father Tun Razak.

His political and administrative experience is unmatched by
any other politician of his age -- he is only 47 -- and includes
a myriad of ministries, as well as the Mentri Besar-ship of
Pahang. His supporters say that because of his youth, he is more
open to new ideas, to the shifting attitudes among the younger
generation, and the changes taking place in Malay society.

But Datuk Seri Najib, said Mr Mohd Alwi, has potential and
experience but nci belum ada nasib (meaning, his time has not
come).

His political networking is said to be second only to Anwar
(when the latter was riding high in the party), and his
connections extend throughout the country, including Sabah,
unlike other party leaders whose support lie largely in their
home state.

It is this strength of his which perhaps makes the Abdullah
camp a little uncomfortable. Datuk Seri Abdullah was given deputy
presidency without a contest and, because of that, it is
difficult to gauge his real political strength on the ground.

Moreover, Datuk Najib has in his camp two of Umno's most
effective power brokers -- Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamid and Datuk
Jamaluddin Jarjis -- both of them are MPs with tremendous clout
among the Umno grassroots.

In that sense, the remaining VP, Tan Sri Muhammad -- variously
known as Mat Taib or Mike Tyson in the party -- might have
enjoyed a little more leverage had he been given a Cabinet post.

Despite falling out of favor with the leadership after being
caught in Australia with undeclared currency, he remains highly
popular among segments of the party.

Among this group, he is seen as someone who can articulate the
Malay agenda in a way they can identify with.

But even those who have grown distant from him since he was
forced to resign as Mentri Besar say he is one of Umno's most
genuine grassroots politicians, that he never turns away those
who come to him for help, regardless of whether "you are somebody
big or just a person down there".

It also helps that he is naturally sociable, with oodles of
charisma and charm.

Said one Umno politician: "We have never been close but, some
time ago, I went with some people to his house. When he saw me,
he smiled so broadly and then gave me this hug that was so
genuine, as though he was really so happy to see me."

When interviewed, Tan Sri Muhammad said in his usual relaxed
way: "Post or no post, I will always be loyal to the party."

His supporters -- and they do extend beyond his Selangor
homebase -- say it would be premature to dismiss him, given the
often unpredictable nature of Umno politics.

They point to the way he won in the VP race against other more
weighted candidates in May. Even if he is no longer a serious
contender for anything more than the VP post, he will remain a
formidable power broker because of his grassroots influence. In
that sense, he will still be courted.

Umno watchers say they do not see Datuk Seri Najib taking on
Datuk Seri Abdullah for the No 1 post when Dr Mahathir exits the
political stage.

But the Defence Minister, they say, is unlikely to let the No
2 post go without a fight. After all, he has come so far and so
near. In the meantime, the thing to watch would be the
individuals and groups that will align or re-align themselves to
these key personalities.

Very often, it is the people and groups around the key figures
who will determine whether their man should slug it out. They are
also a pretty good indication of who is likely to come out
victorious.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network