Shifting alignments in Umno

Shifting alignments in Umno

By Joceline Tan

KUALA LUMPUR: The venue is somewhere in Malaysia's spanking new city of Putrajaya, the participants are carefully-picked middle- and upper-tier leaders from the ruling Umno party, and the key speaker is none other than Prime Minister and Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Dr Mahathir has made time for such sessions with the Umno grassroots leadership, meeting at least once a month since the party's elections in May. The sessions, often held over two days, are supposed to be hush-hush affairs but, because of the frank and often blunt nature of the meetings, they have become talking points in Umno political circles.

They talk about the topics discussed -- corruption among political leaders, Umno's survival, Parti Islam SeMalaysia or PAS' growing strength (somehow, Parti Keadilan Nasional does not scare Umno as much as PAS), and threats to Malay sovereignty, to name a few.

But what seems to fascinate many of them is the key speaker, Dr Mahathir, or rather, the determination, zeal, even passion, with which he speaks and fields questions from the floor for up to eight hours in a day.

A party official who attended one such session a month ago was astonished by the stamina and discipline of the 75-year-old Premier. Like many other 30-something and middle-ranking Umno leaders, this party official has known no other prime minister but Dr Mahathir throughout his adult life.

The official said: "I don't know how he does it. He went on from 8.30am to 10am, 11am to 1pm, and 2.30pm to 5pm.

"He knew we were tired because, after lunch, he told us: 'How nice to be able to take a nap now. But if I were to go to sleep now, then the rest of the country will also want to do so.'"

Dr Mahathir, more than anyone else, is acutely aware that many in the party hold him responsible for the erosion of Malay electoral support from Umno, following the sacking of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. And it probably explains why he seems to be working harder than the rest to win back public opinion, especially Malay public opinion.

It has become a sort of mission for him. There is an urgency in his effort because, as he tells his audience openly, he does not have much time left, and he wants to mend the damage while he still can.

This is very likely his last term in office despite his adversaries in the opposition claiming over loudspeakers at political gatherings that "the Prime Minister wants to die in office".

Much of Dr Mahathir's time is now spent on party activity. In fact, almost every Umno figure is wont to repeat like a mantra the need for Umno to unite, work hard and to strengthen the party. But even as Umno leaders are preoccupied with rejuvenating the party, political alignments and re-alignments have been quietly in formation since the party elections.

Much of it is centred around Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Dr Mahathir's deputy and his third heir apparent.

Datuk Seri Abdullah was confirmed as the party's No 2 -- he was appointed Deputy Prime Minister a year and a half earlier -- without a contest.

The party's supreme council had decided against any contest for the No 1 and No 2 posts on the grounds that it would cause another unwelcome split in the party.

Datuk Seri Abdullah, who hails from a family of Islamic scholars, is a typical Malay gentleman -- soft-spoken, courteous and kind. Underestimated for many years as somewhat soft and from the old world, he is now beginning to assert himself more authoritatively.

Of late, there has been a growing perception that he has grown close to Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, one of the three Umno vice- presidents (VPs), so much so that there is speculation that when the time comes for him to pick his own No 2, Tan Sri Muhyiddin will be his likely choice.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin is also a minister and former Johor Mentri Besar. Datuk Seri Abdullah is actually much closer to another minister, Datuk Dr Rais Yatim, an outstanding member of Dr Mahathir's Cabinet.

Those close to Datuk Seri Abdullah suggest that Datuk Rais would have been his preferred running mate, except that the Umno tradition has been to pick the second top post in the party from among the three VPs (the other two are Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib).

Tan Sri Muhyiddin was recently picked to head a committee to review the party's Constitution. Some think that Datuk Seri Abdullah helped get him the high-profile assignment.

And, despite baggage from some controversial land deals during his days as a political warlord in Johor and his close association with Anwar, Tan Sri Muhyiddin is generally acknowledged as a workhorse, be it party work or government duties.

"He's very professional, knows his stuff, and is serious about what he does -- definitely an asset to the party," said Mohd Alwi Che Ahmad, an energetic Umno politician from Kelantan.

He is also a good speaker, less prone to rhetorics than the average politician, and is analytical without being too abstract, an advantage because the bedrock of Umno's support is still rural, unsophisticated people.

Nevertheless, it is evident that Tan Sri Muhyiddin does not exactly enjoy the Prime Minister's full confidence.

"He's still not out of rehabilitation, if you ask me. He is depending on Pak Lah (Datuk Seri Abdullah) to upgrade him," said another party member.

Where would a potential Abdullah-Muhyiddin team-up leave the other two VPs? And would they accept it without a murmur?

Datuk Seri Najib does not have an aggressive political style. He likes to explore all options before making important decisions or, as he said in an interview, his politics has always been on an "incremental and step-by-step approach".

But there is no doubt the party grassroots think he is eminently qualified. He emerged with the most number of votes among the three VPs at the May party elections.

Next year will be Datuk Seri Najib's 25th year in active politics. He was only 23 when he became MP of Pekan, upon the death of his Prime Minister father Tun Razak.

His political and administrative experience is unmatched by any other politician of his age -- he is only 47 -- and includes a myriad of ministries, as well as the Mentri Besar-ship of Pahang. His supporters say that because of his youth, he is more open to new ideas, to the shifting attitudes among the younger generation, and the changes taking place in Malay society.

But Datuk Seri Najib, said Mr Mohd Alwi, has potential and experience but nci belum ada nasib (meaning, his time has not come).

His political networking is said to be second only to Anwar (when the latter was riding high in the party), and his connections extend throughout the country, including Sabah, unlike other party leaders whose support lie largely in their home state.

It is this strength of his which perhaps makes the Abdullah camp a little uncomfortable. Datuk Seri Abdullah was given deputy presidency without a contest and, because of that, it is difficult to gauge his real political strength on the ground.

Moreover, Datuk Najib has in his camp two of Umno's most effective power brokers -- Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamid and Datuk Jamaluddin Jarjis -- both of them are MPs with tremendous clout among the Umno grassroots.

In that sense, the remaining VP, Tan Sri Muhammad -- variously known as Mat Taib or Mike Tyson in the party -- might have enjoyed a little more leverage had he been given a Cabinet post.

Despite falling out of favor with the leadership after being caught in Australia with undeclared currency, he remains highly popular among segments of the party.

Among this group, he is seen as someone who can articulate the Malay agenda in a way they can identify with.

But even those who have grown distant from him since he was forced to resign as Mentri Besar say he is one of Umno's most genuine grassroots politicians, that he never turns away those who come to him for help, regardless of whether "you are somebody big or just a person down there".

It also helps that he is naturally sociable, with oodles of charisma and charm.

Said one Umno politician: "We have never been close but, some time ago, I went with some people to his house. When he saw me, he smiled so broadly and then gave me this hug that was so genuine, as though he was really so happy to see me."

When interviewed, Tan Sri Muhammad said in his usual relaxed way: "Post or no post, I will always be loyal to the party."

His supporters -- and they do extend beyond his Selangor homebase -- say it would be premature to dismiss him, given the often unpredictable nature of Umno politics.

They point to the way he won in the VP race against other more weighted candidates in May. Even if he is no longer a serious contender for anything more than the VP post, he will remain a formidable power broker because of his grassroots influence. In that sense, he will still be courted.

Umno watchers say they do not see Datuk Seri Najib taking on Datuk Seri Abdullah for the No 1 post when Dr Mahathir exits the political stage.

But the Defence Minister, they say, is unlikely to let the No 2 post go without a fight. After all, he has come so far and so near. In the meantime, the thing to watch would be the individuals and groups that will align or re-align themselves to these key personalities.

Very often, it is the people and groups around the key figures who will determine whether their man should slug it out. They are also a pretty good indication of who is likely to come out victorious.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network