September exports the lowest of the year
Tantri Yuliandini, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Exports plunged by 16 percent in September from August to US$4.32 billion, the lowest level this year, due to an economic slowdown in key export markets, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said on Thursday.
The BPS also reported that imports during the month dropped by 11.47 percent to $2.14 billion, a sign of subdued economic activity at home.
The data provides further evidence of the country's grim economic outlook.
Senior BPS official Slamet Mukeno told a press conference that the drop in exports was mainly due to slower non-oil and gas exports amid weakening in the economies of the U.S., Japan, and Singapore, the country's major export markets.
Raden Pardede, a senior analyst at Danareksa Securities, said the trade figures were no surprising given the global economic downturn.
He said that besides weakened global demand, Indonesian exports were also facing stiff competition from other countries such as China.
"Furthermore, there are also fears of delivery problems, that Indonesia may not be able to deliver goods on time," Raden told The Jakarta Post.
Raden said that the main concern was the 11.47 percent decrease in imports caused by the slowing down in Indonesia's own economy.
"Imports usually consist of capital goods and raw materials. If they are down, then it means our economy is weakening," he said, noting that the slowdown has been felt since July this year.
Raden said he expected exports to further decline until the end of the year, and given the bleak outlook for the country's economy, exports may well only improve in the first semester of next year.
Separately, chairman of the National Agency for Export Development (BPEN) Gusmardi Bustami said on Thursday that exports for 2001 would likely drop to between $42 billion and $45 billion compared to $47 billion last year. The government has projected exports to reach $51 billion this year.
He said that the global economic slowdown, which has been exacerbated by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S., would deal a serious blow to Indonesian exports.
September exports fell to $4.32 billion from $5.14 billion in August, while imports declined to $2.14 billion from $2.42 billion in August.
The trade surplus in September fell by 19.85 percent to $2.18 billion from $2.72 billion in the previous month.
The BPS said that exports in the January-September period also declined by 5.25 percent to $43.67 billion compared to the same period last year.
But imports in the nine-month period increased by 7.06 percent to $24.75 billion compared to the same period in 2000.
Elsewhere, the BPS announced that inflation in October was up 0.68 percent, sending year-on-year inflation to 12.47 percent.
This has dashed hopes of a lower domestic interest rate environment, a crucial requirement for helping promote growth and accelerating crucial corporate debt restructuring programs.
Bank Indonesia has kept its benchmark interest rate at 17.58 percent compared to 12 percent at the beginning of this year in a bid to curb inflation.
The BPS said that inflation between January and October was recorded at 8.89 percent.
The government's inflation target for this year is between 9 percent and 11 percent.
The BPS said that inflation was due to an increase in the prices of goods and services with the highest increases occurring in the prices of clothing at 1.95 percent; unprocessed foods at 1.16 percent; and processed food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco at 0.46 percent.
Price increases also affected the cost of housing (up 0.42 percent), education, recreation and sports (up 0.29 percent), healthcare (up 0.27 percent), and transportation and communications (up 0.11 percent).