SE Asian wheat imports likely to fall

SE Asian wheat imports likely to fall

SINGAPORE (Reuters): Southeast Asian wheat consumption is likely to fall by 10 percent in the June/May 1997/98 year due to a cash crunch caused by the currency crisis, industry and trade officials said yesterday.

"What we are looking at here is a 10 percent drop in the region," said an industry analyst who tracks wheat imports in Southeast Asia.

A trader for a U.S. commodity house said a "drop of five to 10 percent in wheat imports is a safe bet".

Indonesian wheat imports are seen taking a hit. The country is the biggest importer of wheat in the region.

Its imports are seen falling 10 percent to about 3.8-4.0 million tons in 1997/98. One senior analyst said it may even drop to as low as 3.5 million tons. Most of the wheat is bought from the United States.

U.S. Wheat Associates, the marketing arm of the industry, said Indonesian imports in 1996/97 reached 4.2 million tons.

The Indonesian rupiah and other Southeast Asian currencies have been savagely mauled by the financial crisis in the region. Consumption in the Philippines, the second biggest buyer of wheat in the region, is also tipped to fall five to 10 percent to around 1.78-1.88 million tons.

U.S. Wheat Associates said Manila bought about 1.98 million tons of wheat in 1996/97. Most of the wheat was also bought from the United States and smaller amounts came from Canada and Australia.

The situation in Malaysia is no different. Its wheat imports are likely to fall to about one million tons from 1.2 million in 1996/97. The main supplier of wheat to Malaysia is Australia.

In Thailand, wheat imports are seen touching 650,000-670,000 tons compared with 680,000 tons in 1996/97.

The fall in Thailand would not be as sharp because wheat is used there as a vital ingredient for its shrimp industry, dealers and analysts said.