SE Asian 'tigers' sharpen their claws

SE Asian 'tigers' sharpen their claws

By Kai Strittmatter

MUNICH (DPA): Anyone thinking of Southeast Asia thinks of
little tigers, of ambitious states in a hurry to be economic
powers, of holiday destinations with glorious beaches, in a
region which for decades seems to have been a regular subscriber
to peace. But secretly the tigers are sharpening their claws:
while the world disarms, Asia arms.

While their economies are growing faster than anywhere else on
earth (at present by up to 9 percent per annum), another figure
is exploding at an even greater rate: Singapore's defense budget
alone rose by 19 percent in 1995 (Malaysia's by 18, the
Philippines' by 14, Indonesia's by 11 percent). The tigers have
money -- and they are afraid. They gaze spellbound at the shadow
of a mighty dragon silhouetted on the horizon: China.

Now the ASEAN states' foreign ministers plan to explain their
concerns to their Chinese colleague Qian Qichen. They will be
doing this at a platform unique in Asia: the ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARF), set up by the ASEAN countries in 1993. The ARF's brief is
to concern itself with security policy problems in Asia and help
to develop trust.

Trust is not doing too well at the moment. There are several
hotspots where conflicts are sparked off with unerring regularity
-- and almost always the key to defusing them lies in China.

First of all there is North Korea, which some believe capable
of carrying out highly dangerous desperate acts. Here China,
North Korea's last friend, is an essential mediator.

Then there is Taiwan: China's missile exercises off the
Taiwanese coast in March alarmed its neighbors. Although peace
prevails for the moment, since Taipei and Beijing have not
achieved even one centimeter of rapprochement, things could flare
up again at any moment.

Finally there are the Spratly Islands: Here the ASEAN
countries are directly affected. The other littoral states
consider China's territorial claims in the South China Sea
outrageous. However, the Chinese fleet has demonstrated that it
is standing by to underline these claims. At stake in the
Spratlys are territory and enormous quantities of mineral oil and
natural gas said to lie under the sea-bed.

But there is more to it: It is a question of security and
peace in a region which fears for its new-found prosperity and
its future if there are warlike confrontations. The ARF has set
itself ambitious targets and in order to achieve them has invited
the big boys of world politics (the USA, Japan, Russia and the
European Union) under its umbrella. So far, however, it has been
noteworthy mainly for consistently ignoring the most pressing
problems.

Taiwan, for example, is not on the agenda -- because otherwise
China would completely refuse to join in talks. The arms race in
the region is not tackled either. Those who defend the ARF point
out that in Asia conflicts are generally solved in a more
informal way, through consultation and reaching consensus. The
aim is slowly to integrate Beijing, and there is no way they want
to get its back up through loud words.

But will this "Asian approach" provide the basis for creating
a multilateral security system when questions of power and
military force are at stake? China will be the test case.