SE Asian 'tigers' sharpen their claws

SE Asian 'tigers' sharpen their claws

By Kai Strittmatter

MUNICH (DPA): Anyone thinking of Southeast Asia thinks of little tigers, of ambitious states in a hurry to be economic powers, of holiday destinations with glorious beaches, in a region which for decades seems to have been a regular subscriber to peace. But secretly the tigers are sharpening their claws: while the world disarms, Asia arms.

While their economies are growing faster than anywhere else on earth (at present by up to 9 percent per annum), another figure is exploding at an even greater rate: Singapore's defense budget alone rose by 19 percent in 1995 (Malaysia's by 18, the Philippines' by 14, Indonesia's by 11 percent). The tigers have money -- and they are afraid. They gaze spellbound at the shadow of a mighty dragon silhouetted on the horizon: China.

Now the ASEAN states' foreign ministers plan to explain their concerns to their Chinese colleague Qian Qichen. They will be doing this at a platform unique in Asia: the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), set up by the ASEAN countries in 1993. The ARF's brief is to concern itself with security policy problems in Asia and help to develop trust.

Trust is not doing too well at the moment. There are several hotspots where conflicts are sparked off with unerring regularity -- and almost always the key to defusing them lies in China.

First of all there is North Korea, which some believe capable of carrying out highly dangerous desperate acts. Here China, North Korea's last friend, is an essential mediator.

Then there is Taiwan: China's missile exercises off the Taiwanese coast in March alarmed its neighbors. Although peace prevails for the moment, since Taipei and Beijing have not achieved even one centimeter of rapprochement, things could flare up again at any moment.

Finally there are the Spratly Islands: Here the ASEAN countries are directly affected. The other littoral states consider China's territorial claims in the South China Sea outrageous. However, the Chinese fleet has demonstrated that it is standing by to underline these claims. At stake in the Spratlys are territory and enormous quantities of mineral oil and natural gas said to lie under the sea-bed.

But there is more to it: It is a question of security and peace in a region which fears for its new-found prosperity and its future if there are warlike confrontations. The ARF has set itself ambitious targets and in order to achieve them has invited the big boys of world politics (the USA, Japan, Russia and the European Union) under its umbrella. So far, however, it has been noteworthy mainly for consistently ignoring the most pressing problems.

Taiwan, for example, is not on the agenda -- because otherwise China would completely refuse to join in talks. The arms race in the region is not tackled either. Those who defend the ARF point out that in Asia conflicts are generally solved in a more informal way, through consultation and reaching consensus. The aim is slowly to integrate Beijing, and there is no way they want to get its back up through loud words.

But will this "Asian approach" provide the basis for creating a multilateral security system when questions of power and military force are at stake? China will be the test case.