SE Asian monies may recover soon
SE Asian monies may recover soon
SINGAPORE (Reuter): Most of Southeast Asia's major currencies are expected to end the year slightly higher than they are now after being battered over the past three months in a regional shakeout, a poll of currency experts showed.
The survey of 11 banks around the region was conducted after the Indonesian rupiah slumped on Friday following Bank Indonesia's decision to scrap its intervention bands.
A notable exception in the forecasts was the Thai baht, which was projected to fall a further 2 percent to a year-end 32.64 to the U.S. dollar.
An analyst at Bangkok's Sanwa Bank forecast the baht would end the year at 35, reflecting weak economic fundamentals.
The average of forecasts projected the Philippine peso at a year-end 29.52 per dollar, the Malaysian ringgit at 2.7327 and the rupiah at 2,785.00.
These represented rises of over 1 percent in the case of the peso and ringgit and more than 5 percent in the case of the rupiah.
The Singapore dollar, which has started to feel the effects of the regional turmoil, is seen ending the year at 1.4882, more than 1-1/2 percent above its current level.
In comparison with a survey a month ago, the poll showed analysts had become more bearish in their outlook.
Forecasts for the rupiah fell within a large range of between 3,100.00 and 2,510.00 but the average came in at 2,785.00, over 10 percent lower, in rupiah terms, than last month's forecast.
"We'll see more weakness in the regionals, the question is how far will this go?" Nizam Idris, an analyst with I.D.E.A. Singapore, said.
Although the ringgit is seen at 2.7327 -- a fall of around 5 percent compared with last month's poll -- analysts were optimistic.
"The ringgit will continue to surprise as the trade deficit proves smaller than most anticipate," said UBS Securities regional economist P.K. Basu.
"The ringgit will recover."
Forecasts for the peso showed a fall of about 3 percent over last month's poll, estimating its year-end value at 29.52.
Table: Breakdown of the forecasts
Baht Peso Ringgit Rupiah Sing dollar ----------------------------------------------- 32.00 28.82 2.68 2,850 1.48 35.00 30.50 2.70 3,100 1.48 32.00 30.00 2.60 2,650 1.45 30.00 28.50 2.70 2,800 1.47 33.00 30.00 2.60 2,650 1.50 33.00 29.95 2.85 2,700 1.54 30.50 29.50 2.72 2,850 1.51 35.00 28.50 2.65 2,510 1.40 34.00 30.50 2.81 2,900 1.52 31.00 28.50 2.90 2,700 1.50 33.50 30.00 2.85 2,930 1.52
Average 32.64 29.52 2.73 2,785 1.48
High 35.00 30.50 2.90 3,100 1.54
Low 30.00 28.50 2.60 2,510 1.40
Current values used in the above percentage calculations are as follows: dollar/baht 31.95, dollar/peso 30.06, dollar/ringgit 2.7700, dollar/rupiah 2,955.00 and dollar/Singapore dollar 1.5154.