SE Asia looking for a security concept

SE Asia looking for a security concept

By Werner vom Busch

MANILA (DPA): Is there a role for Europe in the ASEAN region
-- that is Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, the states that currently make
up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations? And if so, how can
it be defined? Where does an advisory role end and one of
patronizing interference begin? What role do external powers play
in the structuring of Southeast Asian security policy?

It is gradually beginning to dawn on Europe that security
matters in this part of the world are indeed relevant to European
interests -- not least because the ASEAN region already accounts
for 50 percent of worldwide production. It is also the most vital
economic region in the world and is becoming more and more
important for the European economy too.

In recognition of these facts, the German Konrad Adenauer
Foundation organized a conference on "Security and Regional Order
in ASEAN and the Role of External Powers". The conference was
held in Manila this week. In his opening speech, the president of
the foundation, Gerd Langguth, said that Manila had been chosen
as the location because the Philippines was currently in the
limelight of German politics and also had the most democratic
"visiting card" of the region.

The Philippines, which had hitherto played the role of "Sick
Man of Asia", seems to have found its feet again, with an
economic growth rate of seven percent in 1996.

In his introductory speech, President Fidel V. Ramos said that
economics and security were two interdependent issues.

The virtually uninterrupted peace in this region since 1975
has had a lot to do with the unprecedented economic growth in the
ASEAN countries. The Asian "economic miracle" lead in turn to
political stability in the region.

However, the ASEAN nations are well aware how fragile this
peace is. President Ramos said that a conflict in Southeast Asia
"could burst this stability as if it were a bubble", with
unforeseeable consequences for this region and the entire world.

Though even the Asians attending the conference had a certain
amount of difficulty in describing the "Asian way" of working
together, it would seem that it is primarily defined by the
personal contacts between the leading politicians in this
community of states.

They have all known each other for years -- leaders like
premier Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, President Soeharto of
Indonesia or Lee Kuan Yew, the eminence grise of Singapore, have
been in political control in their countries for decades. They
discuss political problems when they meet and try to defuse
potential sources of conflict.

These years of acquaintance constitute Asian-style confidence
building measures. They have produced good results so far and
brought stability to the region.

Yet this concept has its weaknesses, as one participant from
Thailand pointed out: What happens when these aging political
leaders are replaced? This is where consultation mechanisms, such
as have been tried and tested in the European Union (EU) over
many years, could serve as a model for ASEAN, as one EU
representative at the conference suggested.

The greatest unknown in terms of Asian security calculations
is China. All the conference participants agreed that the
stability and integration of this huge country in an Asian
security system are crucial to a stable future for Southeast and
East Asia.

The president of the Chinese Institute for International
Studies, ambassador Yang Chenxu, hastened to stress his country's
peacable intentions. Nevertheless, China's military operations
close to the coast of Taiwan in March of this year caused a great
deal of uncertainty.

The uncertainty of domestic developments in the People's
Republic also casts a shadow on the otherwise optimistic
prospects of China's smaller neighbors, with perhaps the
exception of Indonesia.

Of the ASEAN states, Indonesia, the largest group of islands
in the world, with a population of almost 200 million people, is
the only one which claims to be able to counterbalance, if not
match China's power.

The question of India's increasingly important role in Asian
politics was almost totally ignored at the Manila conference.
However, German member of parliament Friedbert Pflueger (CDU)
pointed out that India's relations with China and its future
policy on nuclear testing would have a lasting effect on
Southeast Asia.

On the subject of human rights -- East Timor and Myanmar were
very much in the news -- the Asian participants at the conference
seemed to share the following position: While European countries
were by all means entitled to raise this subject, it was not
acceptable that they should link it with threats of economic
sanctions.