SE Asia looking for a security concept

SE Asia looking for a security concept

By Werner vom Busch

MANILA (DPA): Is there a role for Europe in the ASEAN region -- that is Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, the states that currently make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations? And if so, how can it be defined? Where does an advisory role end and one of patronizing interference begin? What role do external powers play in the structuring of Southeast Asian security policy?

It is gradually beginning to dawn on Europe that security matters in this part of the world are indeed relevant to European interests -- not least because the ASEAN region already accounts for 50 percent of worldwide production. It is also the most vital economic region in the world and is becoming more and more important for the European economy too.

In recognition of these facts, the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation organized a conference on "Security and Regional Order in ASEAN and the Role of External Powers". The conference was held in Manila this week. In his opening speech, the president of the foundation, Gerd Langguth, said that Manila had been chosen as the location because the Philippines was currently in the limelight of German politics and also had the most democratic "visiting card" of the region.

The Philippines, which had hitherto played the role of "Sick Man of Asia", seems to have found its feet again, with an economic growth rate of seven percent in 1996.

In his introductory speech, President Fidel V. Ramos said that economics and security were two interdependent issues.

The virtually uninterrupted peace in this region since 1975 has had a lot to do with the unprecedented economic growth in the ASEAN countries. The Asian "economic miracle" lead in turn to political stability in the region.

However, the ASEAN nations are well aware how fragile this peace is. President Ramos said that a conflict in Southeast Asia "could burst this stability as if it were a bubble", with unforeseeable consequences for this region and the entire world.

Though even the Asians attending the conference had a certain amount of difficulty in describing the "Asian way" of working together, it would seem that it is primarily defined by the personal contacts between the leading politicians in this community of states.

They have all known each other for years -- leaders like premier Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, President Soeharto of Indonesia or Lee Kuan Yew, the eminence grise of Singapore, have been in political control in their countries for decades. They discuss political problems when they meet and try to defuse potential sources of conflict.

These years of acquaintance constitute Asian-style confidence building measures. They have produced good results so far and brought stability to the region.

Yet this concept has its weaknesses, as one participant from Thailand pointed out: What happens when these aging political leaders are replaced? This is where consultation mechanisms, such as have been tried and tested in the European Union (EU) over many years, could serve as a model for ASEAN, as one EU representative at the conference suggested.

The greatest unknown in terms of Asian security calculations is China. All the conference participants agreed that the stability and integration of this huge country in an Asian security system are crucial to a stable future for Southeast and East Asia.

The president of the Chinese Institute for International Studies, ambassador Yang Chenxu, hastened to stress his country's peacable intentions. Nevertheless, China's military operations close to the coast of Taiwan in March of this year caused a great deal of uncertainty.

The uncertainty of domestic developments in the People's Republic also casts a shadow on the otherwise optimistic prospects of China's smaller neighbors, with perhaps the exception of Indonesia.

Of the ASEAN states, Indonesia, the largest group of islands in the world, with a population of almost 200 million people, is the only one which claims to be able to counterbalance, if not match China's power.

The question of India's increasingly important role in Asian politics was almost totally ignored at the Manila conference. However, German member of parliament Friedbert Pflueger (CDU) pointed out that India's relations with China and its future policy on nuclear testing would have a lasting effect on Southeast Asia.

On the subject of human rights -- East Timor and Myanmar were very much in the news -- the Asian participants at the conference seemed to share the following position: While European countries were by all means entitled to raise this subject, it was not acceptable that they should link it with threats of economic sanctions.