SE Asia begins long-term military build-up

SE Asia begins long-term military build-up

By Thomas Fox

BANGKOK (AFP): Southeast Asian countries are beginning a long-
term defense build-up as governments try to fill the power vacuum
left by a diminishing U.S. strategic umbrella, an analyst said.

"Southeast Asian defense establishments will continue to make
upgrades to their weapons arsenals over the long term to ensure
that the vacuum will not be filled by another power, whether
Japan or China," Derek da Cunha said Thursday.

The friendly competition between states could be distinguished
from an arms race by the lack of hostile intent among neighbors
in the region, said da Cunha, a senior fellow from Singapore's
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

Growing economic resources, aging equipment and a partial
switch in emphasis to conventional defense doctrines from lightly
armed counter-insurgency add to the strategic impetus, he said.

In a presentation at Defense Asia '95, a military hardware
exhibition, da Cunha forecast that by the year 2010 Southeast
Asian nations would field about 1,000 military aircraft and 20
diesel submarines.

Thailand's previous government turned down a request by the
Royal Thai Navy to buy submarines. There was no discussion of
whether such vessels were needed at Defense Asia '95.

But one country's need may be sparked if another country buys
them.

"Australian navy officers will love Da Cunha's projections of
submarine deployments," as they argue for a bigger share of the
weapons procurement budget, Australian army Lieutenant Colonel
Dave Chalmers said, speaking in a personal capacity.

The effect of this regional competition could be seen in
aircraft procurement as well.

"Once the Malaysians bought F18s (advanced U.S. military
aircraft) the Thais had to have them," Chalmers told AFP.

The latest issue of Asian Military Review reports from Hong
Kong that unless dramatic circumstances intervene, U.S. aircraft
manufacturer McDonnell Douglas is assured of an order from
Thailand.

The Thai permanent secretary for defense, General Prasert
Sararithi, opened the exhibition with a statement intended to
reassure all sides that the arms build-up would continue but
would not threaten economic development.

"We have no desire to enter into any perceived arms race in
the region. The modernization of the Thai armed forces will be
made (transparently) and in stages compatible with our economic
growth and prosperity," he said.

Arms merchants should be reassured as growth projections for
the Thai and regional economies are among the best in the world
at seven-to-eight percent per year.

But Chalmers said it was unlikely that regional economies
could support the purchase of advanced electronic warfare systems
demonstrated convincingly in the U.S.-Iraq war and highly visible
at Defense Asia '95.

Meanwhile, governments of industrialized countries are
lobbying heavily for the right to supply new systems and to
unload systems one step behind the cutting edge.

The Thai army recently won approval for the purchase of 101
used M60-3A tanks from the United States to modernize its aging
armored corps.

But the region is essentially a maritime military theater, and
the most dramatic expenditures will be for combined-force
capabilities -- using ground, sea and air forces to project power
offshore, da Cunha said.

The extension of economic rights to 200 nautical miles
offshore, the dispute over who owns the Spratly Islands in the
South China Sea and the uncertain intentions of China mean an
increase high-technology missions for naval and air forces, he
said.

Indonesia has bought 39 East German warships and is
refurbishing them in its own dockyards, and Singapore has ordered
four minesweepers from Sweden.

The Thai navy plans a complete blue-water fleet with frigates,
helicopters and vertical take-off and landing aircraft, and
submarines.