SE Asia begins long-term military build-up
SE Asia begins long-term military build-up
By Thomas Fox
BANGKOK (AFP): Southeast Asian countries are beginning a long- term defense build-up as governments try to fill the power vacuum left by a diminishing U.S. strategic umbrella, an analyst said.
"Southeast Asian defense establishments will continue to make upgrades to their weapons arsenals over the long term to ensure that the vacuum will not be filled by another power, whether Japan or China," Derek da Cunha said Thursday.
The friendly competition between states could be distinguished from an arms race by the lack of hostile intent among neighbors in the region, said da Cunha, a senior fellow from Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
Growing economic resources, aging equipment and a partial switch in emphasis to conventional defense doctrines from lightly armed counter-insurgency add to the strategic impetus, he said.
In a presentation at Defense Asia '95, a military hardware exhibition, da Cunha forecast that by the year 2010 Southeast Asian nations would field about 1,000 military aircraft and 20 diesel submarines.
Thailand's previous government turned down a request by the Royal Thai Navy to buy submarines. There was no discussion of whether such vessels were needed at Defense Asia '95.
But one country's need may be sparked if another country buys them.
"Australian navy officers will love Da Cunha's projections of submarine deployments," as they argue for a bigger share of the weapons procurement budget, Australian army Lieutenant Colonel Dave Chalmers said, speaking in a personal capacity.
The effect of this regional competition could be seen in aircraft procurement as well.
"Once the Malaysians bought F18s (advanced U.S. military aircraft) the Thais had to have them," Chalmers told AFP.
The latest issue of Asian Military Review reports from Hong Kong that unless dramatic circumstances intervene, U.S. aircraft manufacturer McDonnell Douglas is assured of an order from Thailand.
The Thai permanent secretary for defense, General Prasert Sararithi, opened the exhibition with a statement intended to reassure all sides that the arms build-up would continue but would not threaten economic development.
"We have no desire to enter into any perceived arms race in the region. The modernization of the Thai armed forces will be made (transparently) and in stages compatible with our economic growth and prosperity," he said.
Arms merchants should be reassured as growth projections for the Thai and regional economies are among the best in the world at seven-to-eight percent per year.
But Chalmers said it was unlikely that regional economies could support the purchase of advanced electronic warfare systems demonstrated convincingly in the U.S.-Iraq war and highly visible at Defense Asia '95.
Meanwhile, governments of industrialized countries are lobbying heavily for the right to supply new systems and to unload systems one step behind the cutting edge.
The Thai army recently won approval for the purchase of 101 used M60-3A tanks from the United States to modernize its aging armored corps.
But the region is essentially a maritime military theater, and the most dramatic expenditures will be for combined-force capabilities -- using ground, sea and air forces to project power offshore, da Cunha said.
The extension of economic rights to 200 nautical miles offshore, the dispute over who owns the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and the uncertain intentions of China mean an increase high-technology missions for naval and air forces, he said.
Indonesia has bought 39 East German warships and is refurbishing them in its own dockyards, and Singapore has ordered four minesweepers from Sweden.
The Thai navy plans a complete blue-water fleet with frigates, helicopters and vertical take-off and landing aircraft, and submarines.