Scholars predict doom, gloom after Saddam

Fabiola Desy Unidjaja, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Local Middle East researchers downplayed the importance of Saddam Hussein's capture for the United States-led coalition on Monday and predicted that it would not end security problems in Iraq.

They also warned that radicalism may rise among the people in many Middle East countries if the U.S. authorities are seen to be publicly humiliating him by showing the former tyrant in a disheveled state getting poked and prodded by a U.S. Army physician.

Noted Muslim scholar Azyumardi Azra explained that the widely shown video images of Saddam, looking like a vagrant and being examined by an American doctor, could increase anger among the people of the Middle East who supported him or his policies.

"Many consider the scene humiliating. Should there be more treatment like that in the future, radicalism will rise around the region," Azyumardi told The Jakarta Post on Monday.

The rector of state-owned Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic University also said Saddam's arrest may boost the spirit of the Kurdish people, a long time foe of Saddam.

"Should the Kurds do something too bold, it will provoke clashes among Iraqi people and civil war may be the next threat to security in the region," Azyumardi said.

An expert on the Middle East from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Riza Sihbudi, voiced similar concerns over the possible violence after the arrest, saying that many of Saddam's loyalists would continue to launch terror strikes in the country.

"This will not solve any problem, as from the place he was arrested he could not lead any guerrillas, which means that these loyalist groups are still out there and ready to strike," Riza deduced.

He added that if the U.S. forces considered Saddam a criminal, they should also be fair and consider Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a criminal as well.

"If the U.S. thinks that Saddam deserves to be arrested, then they should detain Sharon too for the killing of Palestinian people," Riza told the Post, referring to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, in which the U.S. has been accused of siding with and defending the Israelis.

The arrest of Saddam on Saturday night -- publicly announced on Sunday -- quickly became a hot topic in this country, the world's most populous Muslim country.

Despite Saddam's capture, two bombs exploded in Baghdad on Monday injuring dozens.

"The problem (terror attacks) will only end if the U.S. soldiers leave Iraq and give Iraqis their freedom to run the country," Riza opined.

On Monday, the government here expressed hope that Saddam's arrest would mark the beginning of a reconciliation process in Iraq after the war.

"We hope that the event will be a new momentum to ensure just and comprehensive solution in Iraq," Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was quoted by Antara as saying on Monday.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Hassan Wirayuda also said that the arrest of Saddam would speed up the rebuilding of Iraq and its transition to a sovereign nation.

"We hope that this will lead to the revival of Iraqi people's sovereignty and integrity of the country," Hassan was quoted as saying by Antara in Islamabad, Pakistan as the minister accompanied President Megawati Soekarnoputri during her three-day state visit to Pakistan.

Megawati has yet to comment publicly on the arrest of Saddam.

Some media on Monday quoted Hassan as saying that President Megawati would refrain from making any statement, because the issue had no direct impact on Indonesia.