Scholar warns of `turbulence' in Indonesia-America ties

Berni K. Moestafa, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Though relations between Indonesia and the United States seem to be improving, noted American scholar John J. Bresnan said the two countries had difficulty understanding each other and warned of rough times ahead, even without a war in the Middle East.

Bresnan said that while Indonesia's difficulties in understanding the U.S. were more of a "structural nature", Washington's narrow foreign policy had put everything else after its war on terror.

"If this is even roughly correct, we must be prepared for continued turbulence in U.S.-Indonesian relations -- with or without a new war in the Middle East," said Bresnan, who President Megawati Soekarnoputri recently awarded the Bintang Jasa Pratama, one of the country's highest honors for work that promotes Indonesia.

Speaking during a tribute for him hosted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Thursday, Bresnan pointed to the war on terrorism to highlight the two countries relationship.

"Just consider, the United States and Indonesia are the third and fourth most populous nations on earth. They have historically both of them been strongly focused on their own internal affairs. They both enjoyed unparalleled prosperity in the 1990s and they both experienced deep shocks to their sense of security a little more than a year apart, on Sept. 11 and Oct. 12. -- globalization was now complete: two countries that had felt they were safe from any external threats had to reorder their priorities," he said.

Against this backdrop, U.S. interest in Indonesia increased but was confined to serving its antiterror campaign. "I have to tell you that U.S. priorities are such right now, virtually no one in Washington is interested in Indonesia as such," he said.

"When public television last discussed Indonesia, no Indonesianist appeared on the panel, the speakers were specialists in international terrorism, one of them had visited Indonesia last summer for the first time," he said.

Indonesia, meanwhile, lacks the capacity to understand the U.S., according to Bresnan.

This is the consequence of Indonesia still grappling with a multitude of domestic problems. The country has yet to fully recover from the 1997 economic crisis and the threat of political instability still simmers, five years since the downfall of Soeharto's authoritarian regime.

The outlook on the relationship between Indonesia and the U.S. is not encouraging, according to the scholar. "I wish it was not so, but it is my expectation that the U.S. will invade Iraq. I think all the preparations are being made for that to happen."

"If that happens there's going to be a lot of pressure on the government of Indonesia to react in all kinds of ways," he later told The Jakarta Post.

Muslim leaders here have warned that a unilateral attack on Iraq will spark hatred against the U.S., even among moderate Muslims. And political parties, preparing for the 2004 general election, will fuel anti-American sentiment to rally support, analysts have said.

"Whereas, in fact, I think for the moment things have been improving considerably," Bresnan continued.

Indonesian Ambassador to Washington Soemadi D.M. Brotodiningrat recently said ties between the two countries had improved thanks to progress made in the Bali bombing investigation.

Criticism in Washington that Indonesia was slow in joining the war on terror has faded. The police investigation into the Oct. 12 terrorist strike, which killed more than 190 people, has uncovered the presence of a local terrorist network -- something many Indonesians denied in the past.

"The U.S is much too narrow, it measures everything in terms of actions against terror. Nobody expected the Indonesian police to solve that case and to make arrests so quickly. That is not appreciated in Washington.

"Somehow the accomplishments of the government here do not seem to come through to people back there, so they've gotten the idea that Indonesia cannot be counted on," Bresnan said.

But Bresnan said many Americans were trying to lobby Washington to change its stance.

"They are private citizens that are trying to influence the government to broaden its approach to Indonesia and to take the economic situation more fully into account and to look for more ways to ease the burden on the government on the economic front."

Asked what Washington should do, Bresnan said: "It absolutely must begin to look at the rest of the world with more than a single lens."