SBY Addresses Potential US-Iran Conflict, Sends Message to Trump and Khamenei

Indonesia’s sixth president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), has commented on negotiations between the United States and Iran that are taking place in Geneva, Switzerland. SBY stated that the outcome of US-Iran negotiations will represent a major change for global development.

“At the end of February 2026, very important negotiations and discussions are underway. American negotiators are holding indirect talks (through a mediator) with Iranian negotiators. Many parties are awaiting the outcome of these negotiations, particularly nations in the Middle East. Will they succeed or fail? Will they bring peace, or instead spark a devastating war?” SBY wrote on his X account on Friday (27/2/2026).

SBY noted that the US-Iran negotiations concerning Tehran’s nuclear programme are extremely complex and difficult, with no easy way to build an option acceptable to both sides. The interests of both countries are fundamentally different, he said.

“As negotiations are underway, two countries prepared for war are facing off in the Middle East. Negotiators must also be astute in reading the minds of the two leaders who have mandated them – President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei. Building ‘harmony’ between negotiators and their bosses might also be difficult,” he said.

He noted that negotiation is exhausting work requiring patience, intelligence and perseverance. Negotiators, according to SBY, must be ready to compromise and accept a ‘give and take’ approach.

“The wishes and objectives set by both leaders must be well understood,” SBY said.

Regarding the US-Iran negotiations specifically, SBY observed that US President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei both have unique characteristics. Both are said to possess ego, ambition and personal interests.

“Trump fears that if negotiations fail, his reputation and desired ‘legacy’ could be destroyed. Khamenei is also worried that if this dispute with America ends badly, it could result in regime change and ‘he must go’. This represents a ‘survival interest’ for Iran’s leader,” he said.

SBY stated that many predict war will break out if these negotiations fail, as if merely waiting for Trump and Khamenei’s command.

“In my view, this seemingly inevitable war may or may not happen. Especially if generals on both sides continue to oversee their leaders’ decision-making. Trump and Khamenei will not act recklessly in ordering their forces to war. The risks and costs of a wrong decision are too high,” SBY said.

SBY then outlined several considerations for a military commander in deciding to wage war to serve national interests. First, he said, whether war must be undertaken or if other options remain.

“This is often called ‘war of necessity’ and ‘war of choice’. Ultimately, both sides will decide whether to go to war or pursue another path,” he said.

Second, a country should go to war only if rational calculation guarantees that victory is achievable. According to SBY, both Trump and Khamenei must convince themselves through logic and common sense that the war they choose can indeed be won.

“Because war concerns the fate and future of the people who have given them their mandate and trust, their voices must be heard. The views and advice of generals and military leaders must also be heeded, not buried under a leader’s excessive ego,” he said.

SBY believes that for America, which continues to boast of destroying Iran, should think carefully before deciding to go to war.

“What I mean is, perhaps for America winning this war is difficult to achieve, and then finding an ‘exit’ or ending the war is also not easy. Remember the bitter experience of wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Remember, Iran is Iran. Iran is not Iraq and not Afghanistan,” he said.

Finally, SBY sent a message not only to President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei, but also to all political leaders in the world who hold the power to start wars. His message is as follows:

Officers and soldiers also have souls, they have beliefs, they have common sense, and certainly they have hopes. Regarding sacrifice for nation and country, the military is always ready to sacrifice their souls and bodies. This need not be doubted. During my 30 years of military service, for five years I fought for the Red and White flag. However, the success of war is also determined by what is in the hearts and minds of soldiers. There is a beautiful phrase that must be remembered by political leaders – presidents or prime ministers – “Soldiers will not fight and die, unless they know what they fight and die for.” Soldiers do not fight and are ready to die unless they know what they fight and die for.