Saudi Arabia Poised to Become a New Nuclear Giant, Analysts Warn

Saudi Arabia is considered to have the potential to become a new nuclear power following the signing of a Section 123 Agreement with the United States, which opens the door for the development of the kingdom’s civil nuclear programme. While intended for peaceful purposes, the deal signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is seen as a strategic move that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East. Political analyst Farhad Ibragimov noted that the agreement does not automatically grant Riyadh access to uranium enrichment or reprocessing technology, but it provides a legal foundation for US companies to supply nuclear equipment and technology.

Unlike the 2009 agreement with the UAE, the Saudi deal does not require Riyadh to forgo its rights to enrich uranium or reprocess spent fuel. Ibragimov stated that this omission represents a significant shift in the US approach to non-proliferation. He also pointed out that Saudi Arabia is not obligated to adopt the Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which would allow for broader inspections of its nuclear activities. The kingdom’s economic rationale is to use nuclear power to boost electricity supply, support water desalination projects, and reduce domestic oil and gas consumption as part of its Vision 2030 diversification plan.

While the agreement does not guarantee that Saudi Arabia will develop nuclear weapons, Ibragimov assessed that it allows the kingdom to gradually build its technological capacity. He concluded that this could position Saudi Arabia as a new nuclear technology giant, while simultaneously posing new challenges for the non-proliferation regime and Middle Eastern stability.