Samuel Sekuritas predicts IHSG at 7,500 amid oil price pressures

Jakarta - PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia projects that in the base scenario, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) will be at the level of 7,500 in 2026, in line with sentiments of high crude oil prices and rupiah exchange rate pressures. For the base scenario, Head of Research at Samuel Sekuritas, Prasetya Gunadi, explained that the IHSG reflects a projected earnings growth of 2 per cent this year, with a fair price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple at 12.3 times and earnings per share (EPS) at 606.7. For the bearish scenario, the IHSG is projected to be at 6,300, reflecting earnings growth of minus 3 per cent and a fair P/E multiple at 10.9 times, as well as EPS at 577, Prasetya said during the Media Connect event in Jakarta on Thursday. Meanwhile, for the optimistic scenario, he projects the IHSG to reach 8,000, reflecting earnings growth of 5 per cent, a fair P/E multiple at 12.9 times, and EPS at 624.6. From domestic factors, Prasetya explained that the macroeconomic aspects underpinning the basic assumptions of the IHSG projection are the movements in the rupiah exchange rate. The base scenario is set based on the assumption that the rupiah is at Rp17,500 per US dollar, while the weakest scenario assumes the rupiah will weaken to Rp18,000 per US dollar. Meanwhile, for the bullish scenario, they assume the rupiah exchange rate can strengthen to below Rp17,000 per US dollar. “If the USD/IDR exceeds Rp18,000 (per US dollar), this will certainly affect the consumer staples sector. Banks will also be impacted in terms of asset quality. In addition, we are also looking at oil prices. Because if it’s minus 3 per cent, we assume oil prices are already above $120 per barrel,” Prasetya explained. He explained that the bullish case set initially was actually the base case, where the initial target for earnings growth was at 5 per cent and was eventually lowered to 2 per cent. “Actually, our bullish case was initially our base. Initially, the target was 5 per cent earnings growth, we lowered it to 2 per cent. So, we downgraded it one level. The first reason is the rupiah, and also oil prices,” Prasetya said. At the close of trading on Thursday afternoon, the IHSG closed up 81.85 points or 1.15 per cent at 7,174.32. Meanwhile, the LQ45 index of 45 leading stocks rose 11.03 points or 1.62 per cent to 693.79. Share trading frequency was recorded at 2,675,918 transactions with 42.37 billion shares traded worth Rp23.19 trillion. 361 stocks rose, 295 fell, and 160 remained unchanged.