Saiful Mujani Assesses Democracy as Deteriorating Further in the Prabowo Era

Founder of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), Saiful Mujani, assesses the quality of democracy as deteriorating further during President Prabowo Subianto’s administration. He states that this is reflected in the 2025 Varieties of Democracy report on Indonesia’s democratic conditions.

The Varieties of Democracy project is frequently referenced by global experts to evaluate the quality of democracy in countries. The institution has studied Indonesia’s democratic conditions since the nation’s founding.

The indicators used by the organisation to measure the level of democracy include the electoral component index and the liberal component index. Each component consists of various aspects, such as freedom of expression, freedom of association, clean elections, equality under the law, individual freedoms, and control by legislative or executive institutions.

Saiful explains that on a scale of 0 to 1, Indonesia’s democracy score stands at 0.30. This score, he says, has declined from the 2024 report, which recorded Indonesia’s democratic conditions at 0.33.

“A difference of 0.03 in one year is significant and important in this measurement,” he said in a written statement on Thursday, 9 April 2026.

According to Saiful, the quality of Indonesian democracy has shown a decline since Joko Widodo’s leadership, particularly in his second term. The worsening of democracy in the country, he says, has deepened in the first year of Prabowo’s leadership.

“Indonesia’s democratic conditions now are worse than during Jokowi’s administration,” said this Professor of Political Science at the State Islamic University of Jakarta.

He states that Indonesia falls into the category of autocratic states or electoral autocracy according to the Varieties of Democracy report. An autocratic state, he says, is a condition where elections are held, but the mechanisms are not democratic.

Saiful says that the principle of checks and balances not functioning in the Prabowo administration era is one of the causes of the declining democracy score in Indonesia. According to him, the poor control by the legislative branch over the executive is due to the lack of opposition parties.

He says that currently, almost all political parties are aligned with the administration of the Gerindra Party Chairman. “The more parties gather in the government, the less democratic it becomes. If everyone joins, who controls the government?” said Saiful.

Lately, Saiful Mujani has been in the public spotlight regarding his criticisms of the Prabowo Subianto administration. He voiced these criticisms at a halal bihalal forum with several observers titled “Before Observers Are Regulated” on 31 March 2026.

One of the issues he criticised was Prabowo and Gibran’s victory in the 2024 Presidential Election. According to him, Prabowo, who paired with Joko Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, won through undemocratic mechanisms.

“For me, that is autocracy through undemocratic election mechanisms or electoral autocracy,” said Saiful in his statement on Tuesday, 7 April 2026.

Saiful admits to having reasons to urge the public to oust Prabowo from the presidency. Moreover, Saiful assesses that the former Kopassus Commander’s leadership is generally incompetent and lacks authority.

“Prabowo is not presidential. A presidential figure, to me, is one who is inclusive, accepts diverse aspirations, and acts beyond partisan politics,” he said.

He states that presidential impeachment can be initiated by the House of Representatives (DPR). However, he doubts this step can succeed, given that the Gerindra Party Chairman has controlled the current legislative body.

Even with the option of waiting until the 2029 election, which is still 3.5 years away. According to Saiful, various policies implemented by Prabowo have the potential to make Indonesia worse, so changes at the top of the government must be made immediately.

“Therefore, the alternative path (to topple Prabowo) is through people power,” he said.

Saiful says that pressure from the masses to shake the leader has occurred in Indonesian history. He cites examples such as the people power movements in 1966 and 1998. The mass pressure in 1998, for instance, led to Suharto’s downfall.

“This movement is at least to delegitimise Prabowo, who is not presidential, and to strengthen mass opposition,” said Saiful.

Saiful Mujani has been reported to the Metro Jaya Police by an individual named Robina Akbar, who claims to be from the Eastern Society Alliance. Saiful was reported for alleged hate speech over his statements at the observers’ halal bihalal event.

“Yes, it is true he has been reported,” said the Head of Public Relations of Metro Jaya Police, Commissioner General Budi Hermanto, when confirmed on Thursday, 9 April 2026.

Budi said that Robina Akbar filed the report on Wednesday, 8 April 2026, around 9:30 PM WIB. The complainant filed the report for alleged violation of Article 246 of the Criminal Code.