S&P Forecasts Indonesia's GDP Per Capita at US$5,200 in 2026, Pressured by Rupiah

International rating agency S&P Global Ratings has forecast that Indonesia’s average income (GDP per capita) will remain lower than most other investment-grade countries, though it is rising at a faster pace. GDP per capita is projected to reach US$5,200 this year, only a slight increase from US$5,100 in 2025, compared to the agency’s estimated nominal GDP growth of 8.3%. S&P explained this is primarily due to the depreciation of the rupiah. However, Indonesia’s trend growth of 3.9% will outperform most economies with similar income levels, regardless of exchange rate movements. S&P also stated its belief that Indonesia’s political and policy institutions are generally stable and free from challenges to their legitimacy. Indonesian policymakers continue to prioritise economic and financial stability. Over the years, the government has worked to improve transparency through regular interactions and information sharing with financial market participants. The agency noted that authorities have begun to show flexibility in adjusting policies when necessary, such as implementing significant spending cuts to keep the deficit below the threshold this year.