Russia's Grain Exports Drive African Dependence Beyond Military Influence

Russia’s wheat exports to African nations have surged this year, according to Russian agricultural export agency Agroexport. Egypt increased purchases by 19%, while exports to Sudan jumped 78% and supplies to Kenya rose sixfold, per newly published data. Speaking at the Fifth All-Russian Grain Forum, as cited by Russia Today on Monday, 25 May 2026, Agroexport chief Ilya Ilyushin stated Russia exported nearly 52 million tonnes of grains and pulses in calendar year 2025, alongside over 3 million tonnes of oilseeds. He added that wheat supplies rose 30% year-on-year to 14 million tonnes, with Africa being the primary driver of this growth, recording record import volumes. Agroexport reported wheat shipments to Cameroon reached 137,000 tonnes worth $32 million (Rp567 billion) in 2025, a 3.2-fold increase from the previous year, with wheat accounting for 99% of export revenue. Russia also supplies duck meat, frozen fish, and processed grain products. In the first four months of 2026, exports to Cameroon totalled around 93,000 tonnes worth over $21 million (Rp372 billion). Russia’s broader wheat export expansion coincides with growing ties between Moscow’s city and regional authorities and African nations. Earlier this month, Moscow’s mayor’s office reported a 52-fold increase in exports from Russian capital-based companies to African nations in Q1 2026, reaching $7.8 million (Rp138 billion). Demand for Russian soybean and rapeseed oil has also surged across North Africa. Agroexport estimates exports of both products to the region rose 54% year-on-year between September 2025 and April 2026, reaching 220,000 tonnes. Algeria and Tunisia emerged as the largest buyers of Russian vegetable oil, behind only China and India, while rapeseed oil shipments to Tunisia increased fivefold. Last month, Agroexport stated that Russian wheat shipments to Sudan more than doubled. Exporters delivered approximately 1.7 million tonnes since the start of the 2025/26 season, up from 0.7 million tonnes in the same period the previous year.