Russian Oil 'Escapes' via Arctic as Hormuz Strait Traffic Dwindles

Russia has begun ramping up crude oil shipments to Asia via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Conversely, the Strait of Hormuz is growing quieter.

This year, at least seven tankers carrying around 6 million barrels of crude oil have sailed towards Asia.

The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through Arctic waters. The route is normally only navigable during the summer, from around 1 July to 1 October.

However, geopolitical conflict has made the route increasingly strategic. Russia can send oil to China and other Asian markets without passing through routes that risk inspection, detention or restrictions from European authorities related to Ukraine war sanctions.

The volume of oil shipped via the NSR this year has already reached around 850,000 tonnes, nearly half of the roughly 13 million barrels sent during the entire shipping season last year. This comes despite Russian oil shipments via the Arctic route falling 4% in 2025.

China is the main destination for Russian oil via the NSR. Chinese purchases could increase if supply disruptions from the Middle East due to the Iran conflict continue.

The NSR can cut travel time to Asian countries such as China to around two weeks, compared with the international route via the Suez Canal. Relatively light ice conditions this year have also made navigation easier, making Arctic oil shipments more efficient.

“Ice conditions this year are relatively light, making navigation easier, while logistical problems in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea support crude oil shipments from Russia to China via the Arctic,” said a trader involved in NSR shipments, as quoted by Reuters.

Market participants expect Russian oil shipments via the NSR this year to be higher than in 2025, driven by economic and geopolitical considerations.

China is one of the biggest beneficiaries because its ports are closer to Russia’s export terminals in the Far East than other major Asian oil buyers.

Currently, the seven tankers heading to Asia via the NSR consist of six Aframax vessels with a capacity of around 750,000 barrels and one Suezmax with a capacity of around 1 million barrels. Three vessels are Russian-flagged, while the others are flagged in Oman and Cameroon.

Shipments via the Arctic route could grow further after the first phase of Rosneft’s giant Vostok Oil project is scheduled to begin operations in September.

The project is expected to add to the volume of oil shipped via the NSR. However, the amount of Vostok Oil to be exported this year remains unknown.

More Ships Avoid the Strait of Hormuz

As Russia expands its use of the Arctic route, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted.

The number of vessels observed transiting the strategic waterway fell to just eight on Tuesday, the lowest in a week. Ship owners are choosing to avoid the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Kpler data shows the figure is well below the 10-day average of around 12 vessels and the lowest since 5 August.

Only one coal carrier exited the strait, while seven other vessels were still in transit. All seven inbound vessels were recorded as choosing routes through Iranian waters.

LSEG data recorded 11 ship transits on Tuesday, down from 14 the previous day.

The figure is far below normal conditions. Before Iran closed the route after US-Israeli strikes began on 28 February, around 130-140 vessels typically transited the Strait of Hormuz each day.

While Hormuz grows quieter, ship traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, has increased.

Kpler recorded 30 vessels transiting Bab al-Mandab on Tuesday, higher than the 10-day average of 25 vessels.

The shift shows that the map of global energy trade routes is beginning to change due to conflict. As ships increasingly avoid the Strait of Hormuz, Russia is exploiting the Arctic route as an alternative to maintain oil exports to Asia.

With relatively favourable ice conditions, shorter travel times to China, and disruptions in Hormuz and the Black Sea, the Northern Sea Route has the potential to transform from a merely seasonal passage into a new strategic route for Russian energy trade.