Russia Increasingly Pressured as China Begins to Dominate the Arms Market
China is beginning to challenge Russia’s dominance in the Central Asian arms market. The latest sign comes from Uzbekistan, a country that has long relied on Soviet-made fighter aircraft.
Uzbekistan has reportedly received four J-10CE fighter jets and has an agreement to bring in up to 24 units from China. Although neither the Uzbek nor Chinese governments have officially announced the deal or the delivery, circulating photographs are believed to show J-10CE aircraft built for the Uzbek Air Force. If confirmed, the procurement could represent one of the largest shifts from Russian to Chinese weaponry in Central Asia.
The J-10CE is the export version of the J-10C, produced by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a leading Chinese aviation company. Pakistan was the first country outside China to operate the aircraft. The jet is equipped with modern radar and can carry long-range air-to-air missiles. It offers a major upgrade over the MiG-29 and Su-27 aircraft currently used by the Uzbek Air Force. The ageing Soviet-era fleet increasingly requires replacement and a more reliable supply of spare parts.
Procuring fighter jets does not end when the aircraft arrive. Uzbekistan will also need pilot training, technicians, maintenance, software updates, spare parts and missile supplies. By choosing the J-10CE, Uzbekistan will be linked to China’s defence systems for the aircraft’s service life, which could span decades.
China is benefiting from Russia’s declining ability to supply weapons abroad. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that Russia’s arms export volume fell by 64% in the 2021-2025 period compared with 2016-2020. Russia’s share of global arms exports also dropped from 21% to just 6.8%. In contrast, China’s arms export volume grew by 11%, with its global share edging up from 5.5% to 5.6%. The gap between the two now stands at just 1.2 percentage points. Russia remains the world’s third-largest arms exporter, while China is in fifth place.
The war in Ukraine has forced Russia to prioritise weapons and ammunition production for its own military needs. International sanctions have also hampered access to certain components and lengthened production and delivery times. These pressures increase the risk of supply delays and spare parts shortages for countries using Russian weaponry. The shift in buyers is already visible in India, where Russia’s share of arms imports fell from 51% in 2016-2020 to 40% in 2021-2025.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan inherited Soviet military standards. For years, their aircraft, armoured vehicles, air defence systems and ammunition have depended on Russia. A Wilson Center study shows Russia controls around 52% of the Central Asian arms market. China’s share remains below that but has risen from 1.5% to 13%. China offers aircraft, drones, military vehicles and air defence systems at relatively more affordable prices than some Western products.
Competition is also coming from other countries. Turkey is expanding sales of its Bayraktar TB2 drones, while Italy supplies aircraft and helicopters. The growing range of options makes it easier for Central Asian states to modernise their arsenals without relying entirely on Moscow.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are not only seeking new suppliers. Both are also beginning to build domestic defence industries. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has asked his military to increase the use of artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, robotic technology and cyber capabilities. “The nature of modern warfare has fundamentally changed,” Mirziyoyev said at a meeting of Uzbekistan’s Security Council in January 2026.
Uzbekistan has developed the Lochin HA-341 surveillance drone with a range of around 50 kilometres. The country also has the Lochin HA-251, which can carry a payload of up to 10 kilograms. Kazakhstan has built a drone production facility that produced around 100 units in its first three months of operation in early 2026. The country has also established a Defence Industry Development Fund worth around US$1 billion to finance the production of ammunition, armoured vehicles and weapons systems.
Domestic industry is not yet able to replace imports of fighter jets and air defence systems. However, drone, vehicle and ammunition production can help maintain supplies when foreign deliveries are disrupted.
China’s closeness to Central Asia is not built solely through arms sales. Trade between China and the five countries in the region reached US$106.3 billion in 2025, up 12% from the previous year. Chinese exports to Central Asia reached US$71.2 billion, while imports totalled US$35.1 billion.
In Uzbekistan, Chinese energy company Sinopec is exploring cooperation with Uzbekneftegaz to develop oil and gas in the Ustyurt Plateau. Sinopec has also obtained approval to run energy projects worth more than US$6 billion in western Uzbekistan. In Kazakhstan, oil exports via the Kazakhstan-China pipeline network surged 43% to 916,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026.
The scale of trade, investment, energy and infrastructure ties gives China a broader pathway to offer defence technology and equipment.
Despite China’s growing influence, Russia’s position in Central Asia has not been erased. Moscow still maintains significant presence in the region.