Russia Challenges the World, Germany Arms Up: 3 Analysts Dissect the Fate of a Divided NATO

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – Four years after Russian troops withdrew from Bucha, leaving behind evidence of brutality that shook the world’s conscience, the war in Ukraine is still far from a resolution point.

In Moscow, a leading professor is compiling arguments on how Russia can win what he calls the “new world war.” In Berlin, an academic is questioning whether German society is truly ready to face the consequences of the sudden military ambitions they have announced. In Kyiv, a senior journalist calmly but firmly explains why Russia’s demands at the negotiating table are no different from demands for surrender. Three voices, three contrasting perspectives in many ways, but when read together, they form the most honest picture of where the world truly stands in the most dangerous conflict since the Cold War.

Russia Must Play Harder

Professor Sergey Karaganov, honorary chairman of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, begins his analysis on RT with a claim that, if it came from anyone other than a senior analyst with a long track record, might be dismissed outright: a full-scale world war has begun.

For Karaganov, the ongoing conflict is not just a war in Ukraine. It is the latest chapter in a struggle rooted since 1917, when the Soviet Union broke away from the global capitalist system and began what became a centuries-long confrontation. “A wave of national liberation is sweeping the world, accompanied by the nationalisation of resources seized by Western countries,” he writes, providing historical context that transcends the boundaries of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In Karaganov’s reading, Russia’s mistake was not in deciding to act, but in the way it acted. He points to several strategic errors that he believes have weakened Moscow’s position: underestimating the West’s determination to destroy Russia, underestimating Ukraine’s military readiness, and most crucially, failing to optimally utilise Russia’s most important weapon in its arsenal, namely nuclear deterrence.

“We have been dragged into a conflict called a ‘special military operation,’ which effectively accepts the rules of the game imposed, a war of attrition,” he writes in a tone reflecting the frustration of an analyst who feels his warnings were not sufficiently heeded.

Karaganov’s prescription is the most controversial among these three analysts. He calls for a revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine to explicitly state readiness to use nuclear weapons if the West continues to escalate. “The illusion that political and military elites can hide in bunkers or remote locations must be dispelled,” he asserts. He even suggests that Russia consider conducting nuclear tests to strengthen the credibility of its deterrence.