Rupiah Weakness and Shrinking Middle Class Threaten Ziswaf Collection

JAKARTA — The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar is seen as a potential pressure on the collection of Zakat, Infaq, Sadaqah, and Waqf (Ziswaf) in Indonesia. The Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, Professor Burhanuddin Muhtadi, warned that the primary issue is not merely the exchange rate, but a prolonged economic weakening and the shrinking of the middle class.

According to Burhanuddin, the depreciation of the rupiah is merely a symptom of larger economic pressures. This condition is evidenced by the decreasing number of middle-class citizens in recent years.

“In truth, the weakening of the rupiah is just a symptom. The larger issue is the occurrence of economic weakening. This is indicated by a significant decline in the middle class,” Burhanuddin stated during an interview with Republika.co.id at the Dompet Dhuafa office in South Jakarta recently.

He explained that the economic pressure experienced by the middle class has occurred consecutively over the last few years. The situation is exacerbated by the strengthening of the US dollar, the weakening of the rupiah, and economic conditions that are deemed not yet fully recovered.

“Even though the government releases fairly good economic growth figures, the weakening appears consistent and systematic. This coincides with the decline in the stock index,” he added.

Burhanuddin expressed concern that if the trend of stagnant or weakening economic growth continues, the potential for national Ziswaf collection in the future will also decline.

He noted that several previous studies estimated Indonesia’s zakat and waqf potential could reach around Rp 500 trillion. However, those projections were made when the middle class was relatively stronger than it is today.

Based on findings from an Indikator Politik Indonesia survey in 2026, which measured Ziswaf behaviour in the preceding year, the Ziswaf potential was recorded at approximately Rp 343 trillion. This figure is lower than the estimates provided in previous studies.

“Our 2026 findings, based on Ziswaf behaviour from the previous year, show around Rp 343 trillion. This is actually a decrease compared to previous Baznas studies, as those studies were conducted before the trend of the middle-class decline occurred,” he said.