Rupiah Weakens to Rp17,967 per US Dollar as Markets Eye Fed Rate Signals
The rupiah exchange rate today, 25 June 2026, is moving weaker against the US dollar. The rupiah weakened by 15 points or 0.08 per cent to Rp17,967 per US dollar from the previous close on Wednesday (24/6), which stood at Rp17,952 per US dollar.
The rupiah’s decline occurs amidst increasing market expectations regarding a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). This sentiment has driven the strengthening of the US dollar and exerted pressure on several currencies, including the rupiah.
Currency analyst Lukman Leong from Doo Financial Futures stated that the rupiah is expected to remain under pressure against the US dollar as expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to strengthen.
“The rupiah is expected to weaken against the US dollar amidst increasing expectations of a rate hike by the Fed, which has pushed the US dollar index to a new 13-month high,” Lukman told ANTARA in Jakarta on Thursday.
The market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike to be around 70 per cent in September 2026. Furthermore, market participants are also closely watching the possibility of a subsequent rate hike in December.
These expectations have made the US dollar increasingly strong. According to Lukman, the surge in the US dollar index is one of the primary factors weighing on the rupiah in recent days, although Bank Indonesia is reported to have made efforts to maintain exchange rate stability to prevent further depreciation.
Investors are also awaiting the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. This data is expected to rise from 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent. If US inflation remains high, the Fed’s room to maintain a tight interest rate policy could potentially remain open.
Regarding domestic factors, Lukman assessed that there is no new domestic economic data serving as a primary catalyst for rupiah movement. Domestic sentiment is described as mixed.
On one hand, there are foreign capital inflows into Government Securities (SBN). On the other hand, foreign funds are generally exiting the equity market. The combination of strong external sentiment and mixed domestic capital flows has kept the rupiah under pressure.
Based on these factors, the rupiah is predicted to move within the range of Rp17,900 to Rp18,000 per US dollar. Market participants are expected to continue monitoring the direction of Fed policy, the movement of the US dollar index, and the development of US PCE inflation data as the determinants for the next exchange rate direction.