Rupiah Weakens to Rp17,845 per US Dollar on Fed Rate Hike Prospects

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar opened weaker in Friday morning trade (19/6/2026). Pressure on the rupiah mounted alongside rising prospects of a rate hike by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Based on market data at 10:46 WIB, the rupiah weakened 51 points or 0.29 percent to Rp17,845 per US dollar, lower than the previous close of Rp17,794 per US dollar. Doo Financial Futures currency analyst Lukman Leong explained that the dollar’s strength was driven by US inflation reaching 4.2 percent, a figure still far from the Fed’s 2 percent price stability target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to achieving that inflation target as a long-term goal, triggering market expectations that tight monetary policy will continue and pushing the US dollar index to its highest level in over a year. Beyond interest rate factors, concerns over global crude oil supply due to geopolitical conflict also lent support to the greenback. However, a preliminary peace deal between the US and Iran provided some positive sentiment that prevented a deeper rupiah slide. Domestically, several fundamental factors are maintaining investor confidence. Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) decision to retain Indonesia’s emerging market status has provided certainty in the capital markets. On the monetary policy front, Bank Indonesia’s move to raise the BI-Rate is seen as a crucial step to stabilise the exchange rate. The market projects that BI still has room to raise the benchmark rate by around 50 basis points going forward to shield the rupiah from global volatility. Considering these factors, the rupiah is predicted to fluctuate in the range of Rp17,800 to Rp17,900 per US dollar throughout the day.