Rupiah Weakens to Rp 17,395 Despite Government's Announcement of US$3.32 Billion Trade Surplus in March 2026
The rupiah’s exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to remain volatile but closed weaker in trading today.
According to data from the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) from Bank Indonesia, the rupiah rate against the US dollar stood at Rp 17,368 on Monday, 4 May 2026. This position strengthened by 10 points from the previous rate of Rp 17,378 on trading Thursday, 30 April 2026.
Meanwhile, in spot market trading on Tuesday, 5 May 2026 until 09:02 WIB, the rupiah was traded at Rp 17,395 per US dollar. This position weakened by 2 points or 0.01 percent from the previous position of Rp 17,393 per US dollar.
Economist and money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded Indonesia’s trade balance for March 2026 with a surplus of US$3.32 billion, an increase compared to the February 2026 figure of US$1.27 billion.
This surplus condition was caused by exports valued at US$22.53 billion, down 3.10 percent from the same period last year, while imports were US$19.21 billion, up 1.51 percent. As a note, this is the surplus for 71 consecutive months since May 2020.
The March 2026 surplus was supported by non-oil and gas commodities amounting to US$5.21 billion. The main contributing commodities were vegetable and animal oils and fats, mineral fuels, iron and steel. Oil and gas commodities had a deficit of US$1.89 billion, with contributing deficit commodities being crude oil, oil products, and gas.
The cumulative trade balance for January-March 2026 reached a surplus of US$5.55 billion. The January-March surplus was supported by non-oil and gas commodities of US$10.63 billion. Meanwhile, oil and gas commodities still experienced a deficit of US$5.08 billion.
Furthermore, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity is increasingly eroded by the impact of the war, leading to contraction. Data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by S&P Global today shows Indonesia’s PMI at 49.1 in April 2026.
This figure is the lowest since July 2025 or the last nine months. This figure also marks the first PMI contraction since July 2025 after eight months of expansion. The PMI experienced contraction due to a decline in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector conditions in early second quarter 2026 due to several factors.
This contraction was driven by a sustained decline in production volume. The decline occurred for two consecutive months, with the rate of decline accelerating compared to March and becoming the fastest since May last year.