Rupiah weakens on Tuesday, triggered by rising global oil prices

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The rupiah exchange rate weakened by 32 points, or 0.18 percent, to Rp18,029 per US dollar on Tuesday morning, compared to the previous close of Rp17,997 per US dollar. Bank Woori Saudara analyst Rully Nova stated that the rupiah’s depreciation was triggered by rising global oil prices. “The rupiah is expected to weaken in the range of Rp17,980 to Rp18,140 per US dollar today, influenced by the global increase in oil prices. The rise in oil prices is influenced by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has spread to oil refinery production,” he said in Jakarta on Tuesday. Citing Anadolu Agency, it was reported that Brent crude oil prices surged approximately 25 percent during July 2026 after the latest conflict between the US and Iran derailed a peace deal and worsened energy supply disruptions, starting from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. On one hand, the conflict has sparked concerns over the smooth delivery of crude oil and its derivative products, thereby driving up oil prices in recent weeks. However, on Monday (3/7), oil prices fell by more than 5 percent after US President Donald Trump stated that peace negotiations with Iran would resume and announced his decision to cancel a planned military strike against Iran. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, fell to around 83.40 US dollars per barrel on Monday at 06.05 GMT (13.05 WIB). Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, also fell 6 percent to 79.60 US dollars per barrel. As of today, Brent crude oil prices have risen back above 84 US dollars per barrel from the previous close of around 83 US dollars per barrel. Other sentiment affecting the rupiah is influenced by investor concerns over Indonesia’s continuing trade deficit. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that for the June period, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a deficit of 450 million US dollars, with export values totalling 25.46 billion US dollars and imports recorded at 25.91 billion US dollars. “The trade balance surplus significantly influences the rupiah’s strengthening, while capital inflows in the stock and bond financial markets are very volatile. Currently, the trade balance is experiencing a deficit because the non-oil and gas surplus continues to shrink and the oil and gas deficit continues to increase,” Rully explained.