Rupiah Weakens as Stock Index Gains Ahead of Trump's State of the Union Address

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – The rupiah exchange rate weakened by 19 points, or 0.11 per cent, to Rp 16,848 per US dollar at the opening of trading in Jakarta on Wednesday (25 February 2026), from Rp 16,829 per US dollar previously. Meanwhile, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) actually strengthened amid market players monitoring economic and geopolitical developments at the global level.

The Chief Economist of Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, said that sentiment towards the rupiah was influenced by investor attitudes, which tended to be cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s speech. “Market players are closely monitoring the potential developments in US trade policy and further actions in the Middle East,” he told Antara in Jakarta on Wednesday.

Citing Xinhua, Trump is scheduled to deliver a State of the Union address on Tuesday evening (24 February 2026) (US time), which is expected to praise his achievements since taking office for his second term, amid a decline in his approval rating.

This will be Trump’s first State of the Union address since returning to office as president. In March 2025, Trump actually gave an important speech before a joint session of Congress. However, that speech was not officially designated as a State of the Union address because it took place shortly after he took office.

This important State of the Union address is being delivered amid a decline in the president’s approval rating in recent months. The latest polls show that only 32 per cent of Americans say that Trump has the right priorities, while 68 per cent believe that he has not paid enough attention to the country’s most important issues.

“The increased caution supports demand for the US dollar, which has strengthened against most major currencies, including the rupiah,” said Josua.

Based on these factors, the rupiah is projected to trade in the range of Rp 16,775–Rp 16,900 per US dollar.