Rupiah Weakens as Indonesia Posts Trade Deficit

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened at the close of trading on Tuesday, falling 30 points or 0.17 percent to Rp18,027 per US dollar compared to the previous close of Rp17,997 per US dollar. Market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the rupiah’s depreciation was influenced by Indonesia’s trade balance deficit in June 2026. “The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded Indonesia’s trade balance in June 2026 as a deficit of 450 million US dollars,” he said in a written statement in Jakarta on Tuesday. The deficit in June 2026 was primarily caused by a deficit in oil and gas commodities amounting to 3.49 billion US dollars, with the main contributing commodities being refined oil products and crude oil. The deficit occurred because export performance, recorded at 5.46 billion US dollars, was lower than imports, which were recorded at 25.91 billion US dollars as of June 2026. This trade deficit has also impacted the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which have declined from their peak of 156.5 billion US dollars at the end of December 2025. “Caution also continues to colour the market ahead of the release of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Wednesday (5/8), as the market anticipates slower growth compared to the 5.6 percent surge in the previous quarter,” he stated. The government, through Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, projects that Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2026 will slow, estimated to be below 5.6 percent but not far from 5.4 percent. From a global perspective, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July rose from 53.3 to 55.6, surpassing the forecast of 54. “The report indicates sustained demand, clarity on tariffs, and the dissipation of supply disruptions related to the Gulf War, which boosted demand in the labour market,” Ibrahim said. The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) set by Bank Indonesia also weakened on Tuesday, moving to Rp18,037 per US dollar from the previous level of Rp17,991 per US dollar.