Rupiah weakens as foreign capital outflows continue

The rupiah exchange rate weakened by 37 points, or 0.21 percent, to Rp17,944 per US dollar on Wednesday morning compared to the previous close of Rp17,907 per US dollar. Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede stated that the rupiah’s depreciation was influenced by continued foreign capital outflows in the stock market. “Foreign investors recorded a net sell of 58.20 million US dollars, which pushed the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) down 3.05 percent to 5,643,” he said in Jakarta on Wednesday. Today, the rupiah is expected to move in the range of Rp17,825 to Rp17,950 per US dollar. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) will release inflation data for June 2026 and the trade balance for May 2026. He estimates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will increase to 0.50 percent month-on-month (mom) or 3.41 percent year-on-year (yoy) in June 2026, from 0.28 percent mom or 3.08 percent yoy in May 2026, driven by the strengthening pass-through of rising input costs to consumer prices, including increases in non-subsidised energy prices and transportation costs. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s trade surplus is projected to widen to 1.13 billion US dollars in May 2026 from 0.09 billion US dollars in April 2026, supported by the normalisation of import activity after the post-Lebaran surge. However, the trend over the past year still shows a gradual narrowing of the trade surplus. Reviewing global sentiment, uncertainty remains high regarding the potential for a peace deal in the Middle East. Investors are awaiting further developments from peace talks between the US and Iran in Doha, Qatar, aimed at easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.