Rupiah Weakens as Disappointing Trade Balance Data Weighs

The rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar continued to weaken in Friday (5/6) morning trade. Based on market data, the rupiah was corrected by 17 points or 0.09% to a level of Rp18,066 per US dollar, compared to the previous closing position of Rp18,049 per US dollar. The weakening of the rupiah today was triggered by a combination of unfavourable domestic sentiment and persistent external pressures. Research and Development Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) representative Muhammad Amru Syifa revealed that the main factor depressing the rupiah stemmed from the release of Indonesia’s Trade Balance data, which fell short of market expectations. “Domestic sentiment was very influential, especially after the trade balance data released on 2 June 2026 showed that the trade surplus for April 2026 only reached 0.09 billion US dollars. This figure slumped sharply compared to the previous month, which reached US$3.32 billion,” Amru stated in Jakarta on Friday. Beyond fundamental trade factors, market participants are also closely watching domestic institutional issues. Amru mentioned that investor concerns regarding the independence of Bank Indonesia following the passing of new regulations have added to the cautious stance of capital owners towards rupiah-based assets. To curb further volatility, Bank Indonesia is expected to continue stabilisation measures through intervention in the foreign exchange market, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), and the bond market. These steps are crucial to ensure sufficient foreign exchange liquidity in the domestic market. The government is also being urged to strengthen investor confidence through consistent economic policy and by maintaining fiscal credibility. “Optimisation of Export Proceeds (DHE) needs to be continuously encouraged so that the supply of foreign exchange domestically remains maintained,” Amru added. Until the close of trading today, the rupiah exchange rate is predicted to move in a volatile manner but remain under pressure. The estimated movement range is between Rp18,000 and Rp18,110 per US dollar.