Rupiah Weakens as Disappointing Trade Balance Data Weighs
The exchange rate of the rupiah against the US Dollar (USD) continued to weaken during Friday (5/6) morning trading. According to market data, the rupiah corrected by 17 points or 0.09% to the level of Rp18,066 per US Dollar, compared to the previous closing position of Rp18,049 per US Dollar.
Today’s rupiah weakness was triggered by a combination of disappointing domestic sentiment and dominant external pressures. Muhammad Amru Syah, from the Research and Development division of the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), revealed that the main factor weighing on the rupiah stems from the release of Indonesia’s Trade Balance (NPI) data, which fell below market expectations.
“Domestic sentiment is heavily influencing the situation, especially after the trade balance data released on 2 June 2026 showed that the April 2026 trade surplus only reached US$0.09 billion. This figure represents a sharp decline compared to the previous month, which reached US$3.32 billion,” Amru stated in Jakarta on Friday (5/6).
In addition to fundamental trade factors, market participants are also closely monitoring domestic institutional issues. Amru noted that investor concerns regarding the independence of Bank Indonesia following the ratification of new regulations have contributed to a more cautious stance among capital owners towards rupiah-based assets.
To mitigate further volatility, Bank Indonesia is expected to continue stabilisation measures through interventions in the foreign exchange market, the Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) market, and the bond market. These steps are crucial to ensuring the adequacy of foreign exchange liquidity in the domestic market.
The government is also being urged to strengthen investor confidence through consistent economic policies and by maintaining fiscal credibility. “The optimisation of Export Proceeds (DHE) needs to be continuously encouraged to ensure that the supply of foreign exchange within the country remains stable,” Amru added.
By the close of trading today, the Rupiah exchange rate is predicted to move fluctuatively but remain under pressure. Estimated movements are expected to range between Rp18,000 and Rp18,110 per US Dollar.