Rupiah Weakens Amid Trade Surplus and Middle East Turmoil

Jakarta, VIVA – The rupiah’s exchange rate against the United States dollar is predicted to remain volatile, but closed weaker in today’s trading. Based on data from the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or Jisdor BI, the rupiah against the US dollar stood at Rp 16,870 per US$ on Tuesday, 3 March 2026. The rupiah had weakened 22 points from the previous level of Rp 16,848 on trading Monday, 2 March 2026. Meanwhile, spot market trading on Wednesday, 4 March 2026 up to 09:16 WIB saw the rupiah traded at Rp 16,915 per US.Thiswasadropof43pointsor0.25percentfromthepreviouslevelatRp16, 872perUS. Economic and money market observer, Ibrahim Assuaibi, said the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) reported Indonesia’s trade balance in January 2026 recorded a surplus of US$0.95 billion, the 69th consecutive month since May 2020. The January 2026 surplus was supported by a non-oil and gas (non-migas) commodity surplus of US$3.22 billion.

The non-migas surplus contributors were fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel. The oil and gas (Migas) commodity balance recorded a deficit of US$2.27 billion, with the deficit mainly due to crude oil, refined oil products and gas.

This surplus occurred because export values exceeded import values in January 2026. Exports reached US$22.16 billion, an increase of 3.39 percent year-on-year compared with January 2025. Oil and gas exports stood at US$0.89 billion, down 15.62 percent year-on-year, while non-oil and gas exports rose 4.38 percent to US$21.26 billion.

Meanwhile, imports totalled US$21.20 billion, up 18.21 percent year-on-year from January 2025. Oil and gas imports were US$3.17 billion, up 27.52 percent year-on-year. In addition, non-oil and gas imports valued at US$18.04 billion also rose by 16.71 percent year-on-year. The year-on-year rise in imports was led mainly by higher non-oil and gas imports, which accounting for 14.40 percent of the increase.

“Mata uang rupiah fluktuatif namun ditutup melemah di rentang Rp 16.870-Rp 16.910,” ujarnya.

“As information, the air war between the US and Israel against Iran widened on Monday, 2 March 2026, with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran retaliating with strikes on energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and against tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz.”