Rupiah Under Pressure as Trade Balance Data Becomes Main Trigger
The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar showed further weakness in trading on Friday morning (5/6). The rupiah corrected by 17 points, or 0.09%, to Rp18,066 per US dollar, compared to the previous close at Rp18,049 per US dollar.
Analyst from Research and Development at the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), Muhammad Amru Syifa, explained that this depreciation occurred because the release of Indonesia’s Trade Balance data missed investor forecasts. “The sentiment affecting the rupiah’s movement came from the domestic side, especially after Indonesia’s trade balance data released on 2 June 2026 showed April 2026 trade reached only US$0.09 billion, far lower than the previous month’s US$3.32 billion and below market expectations,” he said in Jakarta on Friday (5/6).
The trade data conditions indicate a decline in the country’s foreign exchange supply, which directly pressures the local currency. Beyond domestic factors, external pressure also came from the US dollar index remaining strong due to high global market uncertainty, making dollar-based assets remain a safe haven for investors.
In addition, there is added negative sentiment related to market concerns over Bank Indonesia’s independence following new regulations that expand the central bank’s role. This has triggered a defensive stance or caution among investors in placing their capital in Indonesian assets.
To curb deeper depreciation, Bank Indonesia is expected to consistently carry out stabilisation through foreign exchange market intervention, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) instruments, and measured bond market operations to maintain foreign exchange liquidity.
In line with this, Amru added steps the government needs to take. “Meanwhile, the government needs to strengthen investor confidence through consistent economic policy, maintain fiscal credibility, and encourage the optimisation of export proceeds foreign exchange so that domestic foreign exchange supply remains maintained,” Amru stated.
Considering the dynamics of the above factors, the rupiah exchange rate is predicted to move fluctuatively throughout the day. The market is expected to remain under pressure with a movement range of around Rp18,000 to Rp18,110 per US dollar.