Rupiah Under Pressure as Markets Focus on Commodity Export Policy Through State-Owned Enterprises
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — The rupiah in the spot market closed weaker on Thursday (21 May 2026). The rupiah fell 13.50 points or 0.08 percent to Rp 17,667 per United States dollar (USD).
Currency and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi attributed the rupiah’s weakness to plans to tighten export policies for a number of strategic commodities.
According to Ibrahim, investors have tended to avoid risk assets after President Prabowo Subianto tightened rules on the export of key commodities, including palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys.
The rule requires shipments to be made through a single state-owned exporter or a state-owned enterprise (BUMN).
“Investors have tended to avoid risk after President Prabowo tightened rules on the export of key commodities, including palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys, by requiring shipments to go through a single state-owned exporter,” Ibrahim said.
A wait-and-see stance emerged after Indonesia posted a current account deficit in Q4 2025, driven by a widening oil price differential, Ibrahim said.
Ibrahim also said the decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to raise the policy rate (the BI Rate) had been carefully considered.
The policy was taken as a pre-emptive step to respond to rising global uncertainty.
According to him, the policy demonstrates BI’s commitment to maintaining exchange-rate stability in the face of high external pressures.
“BI is certainly interested in maintaining the exchange rate and rupiah stability. Although the move will add burden to borrowing costs, the decision is expected to shield the rupiah from deeper weakness,” he said.
Nevertheless, Ibrahim noted the government remains aware of the risks from higher policy rates.
The policy could help curb rupiah weakness. However, rate hikes also risk increasing funding costs, constraining credit, slowing investment, and increasing debt service for businesses and households.
External sentiment also continues to weigh on the rupiah.