Rupiah Today: Weakens Due to Israel's Violation of Ceasefire

The Indonesian rupiah weakened again in Thursday morning trading, amid rising external pressures from escalating conflict in the Middle East. The rupiah fell 18 points or 0.11% to Rp17,030 per US dollar, from the previous level of Rp17,012 per US dollar.

Analyst at Bank Woori Saudara, Rully Nova, stated that this weakening was triggered by increasing global uncertainty following reports of a violation of the ceasefire agreement. According to him, Israel’s attack on Lebanon has reignited market concerns and driven up global oil prices, negatively impacting the currencies of emerging markets.

This tension arose after differing interpretations of the agreement between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump previously stated that the peace agreement does not cover the conflict in Lebanon, while Iran considers the cessation of hostilities to apply across the entire region.

The situation intensified after reports of a major airstrike in the Beirut area and surroundings, which strengthened risk sentiment in global markets.

On the domestic front, market players are also monitoring the decline in Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves, which fell by US$3.7 billion to US$148.2 billion at the end of March 2026.

Additionally, the realisation of a trade surplus of only US$1.2 billion, lower than market expectations of US$1.5 billion, is deemed insufficient to provide significant support for rupiah strengthening. With a combination of global pressures and solid domestic indicators yet to materialise, the rupiah exchange rate today is projected to move in the range of Rp17,020 to Rp17,080 per US dollar in the short term.

Bank Indonesia (BI) has stated that stability is currently the top priority amid very high global uncertainty.