Rupiah Today Still Heavily Influenced by US-Iran Negotiations

The rupiah exchange rate weakened by 13 points or 0.08 percent to Rp17,156 per US dollar on Wednesday morning, compared to the previous close at Rp17,143 per US dollar.

Permata Bank’s Chief Economist, Josua Pardede, assessed that the rupiah’s movement is still influenced by the dynamics of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

“Optimism regarding the potential for a peaceful agreement in the Middle East briefly increased during the Asian session, but the rupiah’s strengthening was curtailed due to high uncertainty in the negotiation process,” Josua stated.

Reports indicate that the second round of talks between the US and Iran is scheduled for 22 April in Islamabad, Pakistan. However, the process remains clouded by uncertainty, including the Iranian main delegation’s failure to depart for the negotiation site. Additionally, US Vice President JD Vance reportedly cancelled a visit to Pakistan, signalling that negotiations have not shown significant progress.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire will be extended until the negotiation process is complete. From other global sentiments, US March 2026 retail sales data showed a 1.7 percent monthly growth, up from 0.7 percent in the previous period and exceeding market expectations of 1.4 percent.

Meanwhile, domestically, market players are awaiting Bank Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate decision, expected to remain at 4.75 percent. Based on these various factors, the rupiah is projected to move within the range of Rp17,125 to Rp17,225 per US dollar in the short term.