Rupiah Strengthens to Rp 17,960 After Release of US$450 Million Trade Deficit in June 2026

The Indonesian rupiah strengthened against the US dollar in early trading on Wednesday, 5 August 2026, despite the release of data showing a trade deficit for June. Based on Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data from Bank Indonesia, the rupiah was quoted at Rp 18,037 on Tuesday, 4 August 2026, weakening 46 points from the previous day’s level of Rp 17,991. However, in the spot market on Wednesday morning at 09:09 WIB, the rupiah was transacted at Rp 17,960 per US dollar, strengthening 67 points or 0.37 percent from the previous position of Rp 18,027 per US dollar.

Economic and money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded Indonesia’s trade balance for June 2026 at a deficit of US$450 million. He explained that the deficit was caused by a shortfall in oil and gas commodities, which recorded a deficit of US$3.49 billion, with the main contributors being refined oil products and crude oil. The deficit occurred because export performance, recorded at US$25.46 billion, was lower than imports, which reached US$25.91 billion in June 2026.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of July 2026 stood at US$145 billion, a decline attributed to efforts to stabilise the rupiah exchange rate and government external debt payments. This position is down from its peak of US$156.5 billion at the end of December 2025, a drop of US$11 billion. The figure is still considered safe as it is sufficient to cover 5.4 months of imports, well above the international benchmark of three months of imports and debt payments.

Caution also prevails in the market ahead of the release of second-quarter GDP data, with the market anticipating slower growth compared to the 5.6 percent surge in the previous quarter. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa projected that economic growth in the second quarter of 2026 would slow, estimated to be below 5.6 percent but not far from 5.4 percent. The economic slowdown is attributed to external pressures such as high crude oil prices, geopolitical escalation, and capital outflows from the domestic financial market. The government plans to issue a new stimulus package, including incentives for battery-based electric vehicles, to support economic growth in the second half of 2026.