Rupiah Strengthens on New DHE SDA Rules, Analysts Predict Short-Lived Gain

JAKARTA - The rupiah strengthened on Monday (1 June 2026) as new rules for natural resource export foreign exchange (DHE SDA) took effect, but analysts say the gain is temporary. Spot market rates rose 76 points, or 0.43%, to Rp 17,805 per US dollar from Friday’s close of Rp 17,881. Currency and commodities analyst and PT Traze Andalan Futures director Ibrahim Assuaibi said the rupiah’s strength was driven by the new policy requiring natural resource exporters to repatriate foreign exchange earnings. ‘Rupiah’s strengthening today, even on a holiday, is due to the new DHE rules requiring funds to be parked in Himbara banks. This is a positive development,’ Ibrahim told media on Monday. Under the new rules, natural resource exporters must repatriate 100% of their foreign exchange earnings. Non-oil and gas exporters must hold 100% of DHE SDA in domestic special accounts for at least 12 months, while oil and gas exporters must hold at least 30% for three months. Alongside the DHE policy, the government has begun phasing in a one-stop export policy from 1 June 2026, with a transition period until early 2027 for businesses to adjust before full implementation. ‘The DHE policy could have a significant impact, though I’m not sure about the technicalities. However, this is only temporary, as market participants are focused on Trump’s statement regarding a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, which is being closely watched,’ he said. According to Ibrahim, external sentiment remains the dominant factor in global financial markets. He noted the US dollar index rose on Monday despite intraday corrections. ‘But looking at today’s trading, the US dollar actually strengthened, with a ’cap up’. It briefly weakened by 35 points before rebounding,’ he said. Ibrahim forecasted that this uncertainty would weigh on the rupiah in the next trading session. He predicted the rupiah would be volatile on Tuesday (2 June 2026), potentially closing weaker between Rp 17,800 and Rp 17,850 per US dollar. Over the coming week, it is expected to reach Rp 18,150 per dollar. ‘Likely, the US will reject the ceasefire agreement between the two countries. This is why the rupiah is expected to weaken again on Tuesday when the Indonesian market opens,’ he added.