Rupiah Strengthens Again, Can It Return to the Rp17,000 Range?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is on a strengthening trend in end-of-week trading, in line with the weakening of the US dollar index (DXY).

Given this trend, could the rupiah rate return to the Rp17,000/US$ level in the short term?

Bank BTN economist Myrdal Gunarto said the conditions for the rupiah returning to the Rp17,000 level are that global pressures subside and world oil prices consistently remain in the range of US$70 per barrel.

“If we want to get back below Rp18,000, the conditions are that global pressures ease, the war truly ends, oil prices also fall below 70 dollars per barrel, and global investors’ view of Indonesia returns to normal again,” Myrdal told CNBC Indonesia when contacted on Friday (10/7/2026).

Myrdal said that if that combination of conditions materialises, the rupiah could strengthen to Rp17,600 per dollar.

“Well, if that has happened, I think investors will return and push the rupiah to strengthen back to levels below Rp18,000,” said Myrdal. “Because our projection is at a level of around Rp17,600,” he asserted.

As is known, the rupiah has once again surpassed the Rp18,000/US$ level after previously reaching the Rp17,000 range.

Citing Refinitiv data, the rupiah exchange rate closed at Rp18,045/US$, appreciating 0.14% in Friday’s trading (10/7/2026).

This strengthening also reversed the rupiah’s position at the close of the previous trading day, when the Garuda currency closed at its weakest level in the past month.

Throughout the day’s trading, the rupiah had in fact opened stronger this morning. The appreciation continued until the close of trading, with the rupiah moving in a range of Rp18,045–Rp18,075/US$.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against six major world currencies, was observed to have corrected 0.11% to a level of 100.788 as of 15.00 WIB.

The rupiah’s movement in today’s trading received fresh impetus from the weakening of the US dollar index in the global market.

The US dollar weakened for a second consecutive session after the United States and Iran launched fresh attacks. Although Middle East tensions have risen again, market players are also monitoring developments in oil prices and global inflation prospects.