Rupiah sentiment influenced by US attacks on Iran

The rupiah is projected to trade within the range of Rp18,000–18,125 per US dollar today. Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Permata Bank, stated that the rupiah is receiving sentiment from US military attacks on Iran, which have caused oil prices to rise.

“The surge in oil prices was triggered by US military attacks on Iran, increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and triggering risk-off sentiment in emerging markets,” he told ANTARA in Jakarta on Friday. On Friday morning, the rupiah exchange rate strengthened by 37 points or 0.20 per cent to Rp18,074 per US dollar, compared to the previous close of Rp18,111 per US dollar.

Citing Anadolu, the US launched attacks against Iran on Wednesday night (29/7) under the pretext of retaliating against an “attempted Iranian attack” on US forces in the Middle East, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). The attacks occurred after US President Donald Trump promised a “very harsh” response following a drone strike on a US LNG tanker in Egypt.

Regarding global sentiment, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showed growth of 1.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter (qoq) in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 2.1 per cent qoq in the first quarter of 2026, and falling below the market consensus of 2 per cent qoq. Meanwhile, Personal Spending increased by only 0.3 per cent month-on-month in June 2026, slowing from 0.9 per cent mom in the previous month and lower than market expectations of 0.4 per cent mom.

In terms of inflation, the Fed’s chosen inflation indicators, namely the PCE Price Index and Core PCE Price Index, both eased to 3.7 per cent year-on-year (yoy) and 3.3 per cent yoy respectively in June 2026, in line with market expectations. “We expect the rupiah to move within the range of Rp18,000–18,125 per US dollar today,” he concluded.