Rupiah Predicted to Plummet to 17,660 Level Early This Week; Here are the Primary Drivers
The Rupiah exchange rate is projected to face pressure, potentially touching the level of Rp 17,660 per US Dollar in trading this Monday (18/5/2026). Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the strengthening of the US Dollar, a surge in oil import requirements, and market sentiment regarding statements by President Prabowo Subianto are identified as the series of factors weighing on the ‘Garuda’ currency at the beginning of this week.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi projects the Rupiah to move weaker within the range of Rp 17,590 to Rp 17,660 per US Dollar. “For the Rupiah, it may be traded on Monday, likely weakening between Rp 17,590 and Rp 17,660. There is a high possibility of a 50-point depreciation,” Ibrahim stated when contacted on Sunday night (17/5/2026).
He highlighted the incident involving the seizure of a Chinese vessel by Iran during the US-China Summit. This event is seen as adding to global uncertainty and triggering market concerns regarding the stability of global energy routes. “The Strait of Hormuz issue remains a concern. Especially following the summit in China, Iran seized a Chinese ship, which creates its own set of tensions,” he said.
Furthermore, the Israeli military conflict is assessed to be worsening the geopolitical situation, as Israel continues attacks in Southern Lebanon and operations against Hamas leadership. These conditions are driving the strengthening of the US Dollar as a global safe-haven asset. Concurrently, global crude oil prices are expected to continue rising, adding pressure to the Indonesian economy, which remains dependent on energy imports.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged by 10.48 per cent over a week to a position of 105.42 US Dollars per barrel. In daily trading, Brent strengthened by 3.35 per cent, or rose by 3.54 US Dollars per barrel on Friday, while WTI rose by 4.2 per cent, adding 4.25 US Dollars per barrel. The rise in oil prices will directly impact Indonesia’s import requirements, as Indonesia’s oil imports reach approximately 1.5 million barrels, necessitating large amounts of US Dollar supplies. “Crude oil prices will also continue to rise, impacting the domestic economy, particularly regarding the issue of imports; as I always say, the oil imports are so large at 1.5 million barrels per day,” he explained.