Rupiah Plummets to 17,600 per US Dollar

The Rupiah exchange rate plummeted to 17,600 per US dollar during the long weekend period, on Friday, 15 May 2026. According to Google data, the Rupiah reached 17,602 on Saturday morning, 16 May 2026.

Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, Ibrahim Asuaibi, stated that the Rupiah’s weakening is influenced by the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Another factor is the direction of monetary policy by the US central bank, or The Fed.

The leadership of The Fed has shifted to Kevin Warsh from Jerome Powell. “Given the significant inflation in the United States, and the continued rise in gasoline prices, it is likely that this will have a significant impact on inflation. It is likely that in 2026, the US central bank will not lower interest rates,” said Ibrahim in a statement on Friday, 15 May 2026.

Meanwhile, from a domestic perspective, Ibrahim revealed that Bank Indonesia can only intervene in the international market during trading hours on the long weekend. This makes the impact of foreign exchange transactions in the overseas market very significant for the Rupiah.

Ibrahim predicts that the Rupiah could weaken to 18,000 per US dollar by the end of May 2026. If this level is reached, he said, the exchange rate could weaken to 22,000 per US dollar.

If the Rupiah breaks through the 18,000 or even 22,000 per US dollar level, Ibrahim estimates that Bank Indonesia will raise its benchmark interest rate, or BI Rate, in June. “It could be (an increase) of 25 to 50 basis points. The goal is to stabilize the Rupiah,” he said.