Rupiah Pegged at Rp17,500 per US Dollar in 2027 State Budget Draft, Observers Express Doubts

The rupiah exchange rate has been pegged at Rp17,500 per US dollar in the basic macroeconomic assumptions of the 2027 Draft State Budget (RAPBN). However, this target has drawn scepticism from economists. Dipo Satria Ramli, an economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CoRE) Indonesia, expressed doubts about the rupiah trend set by the government. He stated that the assumption is very difficult to achieve given current real market conditions. ‘What I find very difficult is the rupiah assumption itself. Even today, the rate is above Rp17,500, and we know that for the past few weeks, it has consistently been between Rp17,800 and Rp18,200. So I am somewhat sceptical about the rupiah trend,’ he said on Friday (14/8). Dipo assessed that the rupiah exchange rate movement is heavily dependent on market confidence and assessments by rating agencies. Without strong positive sentiment, the rupiah will remain under pressure. He further highlighted that a change in leadership at Bank Indonesia (BI) is not an instant solution to stabilise the currency. Dipo noted that the planned appointment of Destry Damayanti as the new BI Governor has not yet been accompanied by concrete strategic steps from the government’s economic team. ‘I think that even though the BI Governor is planned to change to Bu Destry, there is still no concrete plan from the current economic team on how we will strengthen the rupiah,’ he concluded.