Rupiah Opens Weaker, Approaches Rp18,100 per US Dollar

The Indonesian rupiah opened weaker at the start of the week against the US dollar. According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah was traded at Rp18,075 per US dollar on Monday (13/7/2026), depreciating by 0.17%.

The decline follows a strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major world currencies. The DXY was observed strengthening by 0.22% to 101.178 at 09:00 WIB.

The US dollar’s global rally was triggered by renewed conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, US and Iranian forces exchanged missile and drone attacks. Iran targeted US facilities in several Gulf states and reiterated its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy trade.

This development immediately boosted oil prices in early Asian trading, with Brent crude rising 3.3% to US$78.49 per barrel. Rising oil prices are a concern as they could add to global inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.

Market participants are increasingly pricing in two rate hikes by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of two or more hikes by the December meeting rose to 52.1%, up from 47.6% the previous Friday.

Bank BTN economist Myrdal Gunarto stated that the rupiah could return to below the Rp18,000 level if global pressures subside. “If the war really ends, oil prices fall consistently below US$70 per barrel, and global investor perception of Indonesia returns to normal, investors will come back and push the rupiah below Rp18,000. Our projection is at the Rp17,600 level,” he said.